Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	Sport 1
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Portugal	Benfica TV
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sportklub
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Benfica		Arouca

	1	X	2
	1.13	7.5	15	Watch
	1.13	7.9	16.5	Watch
	1.18	8.27	14.41
	1.01	17.37	40.00	Watch
	1.18	7.4	12.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.16)	9.69 ↑ (7.35)	19.64 ↑ (12.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
85.2%

Draw
9.9%

Arouca
4.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

80.1%

12.7%

7.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.4%	9.1%	4.5%

Benfica - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 19 - 86.4%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 72.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Arouca (10.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Arouca (4.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 3 - 60%). Arouca (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 8. Aursnes F. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 11. Lukebakio D. 10. Sudakov G. 25. Prestianni G. 14. Pavlidis V.	1. Valido J. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio 3. Fontan J. 66. Fayed O. 16. Sola A. 22. van Ee E. 8. Simao D. (C) 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 11. Puche 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
39. Araujo H. 18. Barreiro L. 9. Ivanovic F. 90. Lima I. 3. Obrador R. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G)	44. Dante A. 7. Djouahra N. 21. Fukui T. 77. Jansonas R. 14. Lee H. 24. Mansilla B. 58. Mantl N. (G) 6. Monteiro D. 5. Popovic B.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Pavlidis V. (Pen),
22', 2 - 0, Pavlidis V. (Pen),
43', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
45+6', 3 - 0, Otamendi N. ⚽, Lukebakio D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gozalbez P. ↓, Fukui T. ↑,
46', van Ee E. ↓, Lee H. ↑,
50', 4 - 0, Pavlidis V. ⚽, Prestianni G. (A),
60', Lukebakio D. 🟨,
63', Prestianni G. 🟨,
63', Trezza A. ↓, Djouahra N. ↑,
63', Sudakov G. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
63', Prestianni G. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
67', Rios R. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
77', Pavlidis V. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
77', Lukebakio D. ↓, Lima I. ↑,
83', Fayed O. 🟨,
85', Barbero I. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
89', Sola A. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
90+2', 5 - 0, Ivanovic F. (Pen),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Benfica has had a series of away games.

In this match, Benfica is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Knee Injury) Fontan J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Benfica: Dedic A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Simao D. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 16 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 50:9. (average 2.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 31:6. (average 3.1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Newcastle United - Benfica	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.10.25	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Porto - Benfica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Chelsea - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWTLW
- FC Arouca
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Portimonense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
29.09.25	Arouca - Porto	0:4 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.04.25	Benfica - Arouca	2:2
01.12.24	Arouca - Benfica	0:2
12.05.24	Benfica - Arouca	5:0
06.01.24	Arouca - Benfica	0:3
Portuguese League Cup
31.10.23	Arouca - Benfica	0:2
Liga Portugal
31.01.23	Arouca - Benfica	0:3
05.08.22	Benfica - Arouca	4:0

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