Match Info

J1 League - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Kyoto Sanga

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.80	3.50	4.33
	1.78	3.4	4.35	Watch
	1.79	3.8	4.91
	1.84	3.62	4.3	Watch
	1.79	3.6	4.8
	1.82	3.54	4.55	Watch
	1.8	3.55	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.88)	3.56 ↓ (3.64)	4.53 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
52.6%

Draw
26.5%

Kyoto Sanga
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

26%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

25.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Kyoto will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moser L. (G) 6. Omori H. 48. Tatsuta Y. 43. Suzuki Y. 88. Yamane T. 24. Fujita I. 80. Oberdan 51. Shirai K. 10. Na Sang-Ho 8. Esaka A. (C) 99. Lucao	90. Halls (G) 5. Tawiah H. 50. Suzuki Y. 15. Nagata K. 44. Sato K. 6. Joao Pedro 10. Fukuoka S. 77. Arai H. 26. Kato R. 48. Nakano R. 9. Rafael Elias (C)
Substitutes
79. Browne N. 33. Kamiya Yuta 77. Kawanami G. (G) 20. Kawano K. 9. Leo Gaucho 28. Matsumoto M. 19. Sato R. 18. Tagami D. 7. Takeuchi R.	40. Ishida Y. 23. Kato T. 18. Matsuda T. 93. Nagasawa S. 1. Ota G. (G) 17. Souza Alex 14. Thiago 60. Yamanaka R. 25. Yoon S.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Popovic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Rafael Elias (A),
18', Tatsuta Y. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Na Sang-Ho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nakano R. ↓, Souza Alex ↑,
46', Arai H. ↓, Matsuda T. ↑,
50', Rafael Elias 🟨,
57', Lucao 🟥,
60', Esaka A. ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,
69', Yamane T. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
69', Fujita I. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
71', Kato R. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
76', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
79', Joao Pedro ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
84', Tawiah H. ↓, Ishida Y. ↑,
89', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Tagami D. ↑,
89', Shirai K. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
90+1', Sato K. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Souza Alex ⚽, Yamanaka R. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2.

Okayama is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Kyoto is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Okayama could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Okayama is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Okayama: Miyamoto E. (Yellow Cards) Ogura K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Kyoto: Saito M. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Kyoto: Sakai K. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Okayama has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:29 (averaging 1.2:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Okayama against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:9 goals (averaging 1.7:0.9 per game).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.92% Kyoto: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
14	Kyoto	4	1	1	2	6:8	-2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
13.09.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:2 ✺
02.09.26	JEF United Chiba - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Fagiano Okayama - Beluga Rosso Iwami	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWLW
- Kyoto Sanga
AFC Champions League
15.09.26	Daejeon Citizen - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.09.26	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Tokyo - Kyoto Sanga	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:1
07.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:0
30.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:0
15.02.25	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	2:0
Japan J2 League
20.11.21	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	0:0
26.06.21	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	2:0
04.11.20	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	2:1

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