Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Ziyakov R. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia, Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 7


	Fakel		Spartak Moscow

	1	X	2
	5.99	3.99	1.63
	6.74	3.97	1.58	Watch
	5.4	3.6	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.04 ↑ (5.58)	3.85 ↑ (3.77)	1.63 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
16%

Draw
25%

Spartak Moscow
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

26.1%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

25.8%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Spartak Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Moscow than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Fakel - Spartak Moscow Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Spartak M (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Spartak Moscow will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gudiev V. (G) 6. Mertens D. 22. Yurganov I. 47. Bozhin S. 7. Brahimi M. 10. Alshin I. 23. Yakimov V. 64. Ivlev A. 13. Kalinin I. 9. Kashtanov A. 15. Iljin V.	1. Pomazun I. (G) 47. Zobnin R. 4. Duarte A. 68. Litvinov R. 2. Reabciuk O. 18. Umyarov N. 77. Bongonda T. 35. Martins Pereira C. 11. Garcia L. 8. Marquinhos 9. Ugalde M.
Substitutes
31. Belenov A. (G) 92. Bryzgalov S. 5. Gabaraev A. 17. Giorgobiani N. 77. Lomovitskiy A. 19. Pusi B. 72. Senhadji R. 21. Shchetinin M.	14. Abena M. 23. Chernov N. 16. Dovbnya A. (G) 22. Ignatov M. 82. Khlusevich D. 29. Mangas R. 56. Massalyga N. 19. Medina J. 32. Pichienko R. (G) 25. Prutsev D. 7. Solari P.
Coaches
Shalimov I.	Stankovic D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Litvinov R. 🟥,
28', Bongonda T. ↓, Abena M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Zobnin R. ↓, Chernov N. ↑,
46', Ugalde M. ↓, Solari P. ↑,
48', Mertens D. 🟨,
52', Solari P. 🟨,
62', Mertens D. ↓, Lomovitskiy A. ↑,
70', Duarte A. ↓, Khlusevich D. ↑,
73', Alshin I. ↓, Senhadji R. ↑,
77', Abena M. 🟨,
78', Martins Pereira C. ↓, Ignatov M. ↑,
89', Kashtanov A. ↓, Pusi B. ↑,
90+4', Yakimov V. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 2.

Fakel has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Spartak M has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Spartak M has had a series of home games.

In this match, Spartak M is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Fakel: Kvekveskiri I. (Yellow Cards) Motpan N. (Red Card)

There will not play in Spartak M: Babic S. (Red Card) Barco E. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fakel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Premier League
27.04.25	Rubin Kazan - Fakel	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Fakel - Rostov	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Akron Tolyatti - Fakel	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Fakel - Akhmat Grozny	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Krasnodar - Fakel	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- FC Spartak Moscow
Russian Cup
29.04.25	Spartak Moscow - Dynamo Moscow	2:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
26.04.25	Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:2 ✺
19.04.25	Akron Tolyatti - Spartak Moscow	2:3 ✺
Russian Cup
15.04.25	Spartak Moscow - Ural	3:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
11.04.25	Spartak Moscow - Dynamo Makhachkala	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
18.08.24	Spartak Moscow - Fakel	3:0
10.03.24	Spartak Moscow - Fakel	0:2
28.10.23	Fakel - Spartak Moscow	2:0
11.03.23	Spartak Moscow - Fakel	3:2
Russian Cup
19.10.22	Fakel - Spartak Moscow	1:2
15.09.22	Spartak Moscow - Fakel	3:0
Russian Premier League
27.08.22	Fakel - Spartak Moscow	1:4

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