Match Info

FNL - Round 14

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Shinnik (Yaroslavl)

Referee: Kaplenkov I. (Rus)


	Shinnik		Fakel

	1	X	2
	3.92	2.95	2.22
	3.52	3	2.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↑ (3.53)	2.98 ↑ (2.98)	2.28 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shinnik
25.7%

Draw
32.2%

Fakel
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

31.9%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

31.3%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shinnik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Shinnik - Fakel Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Mitrov T. (G) 44. Kornyushin D. 62. Karpov V. 53. Kotin N. 2. Kosogorov A. 55. Lystsov V. 50. Golubev A. 8. Kul R. 5. Malyarov K. 9. Stefanovich I. 15. Samoilov D. (C)	96. Obukhov I. (G) 2. Cherov V. 27. Magkeev S. 20. Yurganov I. 8. Bagamaev A. 44. Zhuravlev Y. 52. Netfullin R. (C) 99. Giorgobiani N. 10. Alshin I. 21. Gongadze G. 19. Pusi B.
Substitutes
4. Bozov N. 27. Chernyi A. 77. Gongapshev A. 1. Ismagilov A. (G) 61. Malakhov A. 88. Mironov D. 18. Miroshnichenko N. 23. Nafikov V. 11. Porokhov I. 6. Rukas A. 92. Shchelkunov T. 95. Vambolt D. (G)	70. Abdokov N. 77. Bagatelia L. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 5. Gabaraev A. 95. Gaponov I. 17. Kovalev A. 97. Magomedov B. 18. Simonov K. 9. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M.
Coaches
Buloychik A.	Vasilenko O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Stefanovich I. 🟨,
31', Bagamaev A. ↓, Simonov K. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Giorgobiani N. ⚽,
58', Stefanovich I. ↓, Gongapshev A. ↑,
69', Kul R. ↓, Nafikov V. ↑,
69', Malyarov K. ↓, Malakhov A. ↑,
71', Pusi B. ↓, Uridia M. ↑,
79', Gongadze G. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
79', Alshin I. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
79', Samoilov D. ↓, Mironov D. ↑,
81', Golubev A. ↓, Porokhov I. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Shinnik has had a series of away games.

Fakel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Shinnik won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Shinnik won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Shinnik - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 26.9%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shinnik Yaroslavl
Russian FNL
05.10.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Shinnik	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Shinnik - Rotor	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Cherepovets - Shinnik	1:4 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	KAMAZ - Shinnik	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Sokol Saratov - Shinnik	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWTT
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
04.10.25	Fakel - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Fakel - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Tekstilshchik Ivanovo - Fakel	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Fakel	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Rodina Moscow - Fakel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
02.05.21	Shinnik - Fakel	0:2
07.11.20	Fakel - Shinnik	2:0
19.10.19	Fakel - Shinnik	0:4
14.11.18	Shinnik - Fakel	1:0
04.08.18	Fakel - Shinnik	3:0
29.10.17	Shinnik - Fakel	0:1
15.07.17	Fakel - Shinnik	2:2

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