Match Info

Russian Cup - Regions Path - Final

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Fakel		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.52	5.4	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.84)	3.46 ↑ (3.1)	5.2 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
54.2%

Draw
27.5%

Arsenal Tula
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

29.4%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

27.9%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Fakel - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fakel will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Obukhov I. (G) 70. Abdokov N. 8. Bagamaev A. 5. Gabaraev A. 95. Gaponov I. 17. Kovalev A. 97. Magomedov B. 9. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M. (C) 23. Yakimov V. 44. Zhuravlev Y.	1. Sangare D. (G) 17. Ahlinvi M. 31. Bolshakov K. (C) 3. Botaka-Yoboma E. 14. Brnovic M. 10. Gorbunov I. 44. Isaenko O. 29. Maksimov M. 8. Popov A. 21. Razdorskikh N. 7. Reyes E.
Substitutes
10. Alshin I. 77. Bagatelia L. 2. Cherov V. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 99. Giorgobiani N. 21. Gongadze G. 27. Magkeev S. 11. Motpan N. 52. Netfullin R. 19. Pusi B. 18. Simonov K.	59. Avanesyan T. 24. Azyavin I. 77. Berdnikov A. 9. Kalmykov A. 78. Lipovoy D. 27. Mirzov R. 95. Obryvkov S. 4. Penchikov D. 15. Putsko A. 5. Sergeev D. 25. Troshechkin A. 18. Tsulaya M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', Magomedov B. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Zhuravlev Y. (Own goal),
42', 1 - 1, Abdokov N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Maksimov M. 🟨,
58', 1 - 2, Gorbunov I. ⚽,
62', Isaenko O. ↓, Penchikov D. ↑,
62', Gorbunov I. ↓, Lipovoy D. ↑,
73', Abdokov N. ↓, Gongadze G. ↑,
73', Turishchev M. ↓, Giorgobiani N. ↑,
75', Maksimov M. ↓, Kalmykov A. ↑,
75', Ahlinvi M. ↓, Troshechkin A. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Giorgobiani N. ⚽,
84', Kovalev A. ↓, Netfullin R. ↑,
84', Bagamaev A. ↓, Alshin I. ↑,
84', Yakimov V. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
88', Botaka-Yoboma E. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 3, Lipovoy D. ⚽,
90+1', Lipovoy D. 🟨,
90+3', Reyes E. ↓, Berdnikov A. ↑,

Preview

Fakel is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Arsenal has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arsenal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fakel is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fakel won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
26.10.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Fakel	1:0 ✺
20.10.25	Fakel - Rotor	4:0 ✺
Russian Cup
16.10.25	Fakel - Ural	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
11.10.25	Shinnik - Fakel	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Fakel - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWW
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
24.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Ural	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Chelyabinsk - Arsenal Tula	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
15.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Sokol Saratov	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
11.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Sokol Saratov - Arsenal Tula	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
08.09.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:0
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	2:1
Russian Cup
25.09.19	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:2
Russian FNL
15.05.16	Arsenal Tula - Fakel	1:0
01.11.15	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	3:1

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