Match Info

FNL - Round 13

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Silantyev K. (Rus)


	Fakel		Volga Ulyanovsk

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.53	6.61
	1.58	3.76	6.74	Watch
	1.52	3.6	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.55)	3.63 ↓ (3.79)	6.52 ↓ (6.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
59.5%

Draw
26%

Volga Ulyanovsk
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

25%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

24.5%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Volga Ulyanovsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volga Ulyanovsk than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Fakel - Volga Ulyanovsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Obukhov I. (G) 2. Cherov V. 27. Magkeev S. 20. Yurganov I. 10. Alshin I. 97. Magomedov B. 52. Netfullin R. 8. Bagamaev A. 99. Giorgobiani N. 19. Pusi B. 21. Gongadze G.	86. Shaykhutdinov V. (G) 20. Kovalev K. 30. Khabibullin A. (C) 4. Ibragimov K. 3. Krasilnichenko O. 37. Voronin E. 28. Novikov D. 17. Gershun I. 27. Umnikov M. 19. Rudenko V. 10. Uridia G.
Substitutes
70. Abdokov N. 77. Bagatelia L. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 5. Gabaraev A. 95. Gaponov I. 17. Kovalev A. 11. Motpan N. 18. Simonov K. 9. Turishchev M.	77. Gutsa A. 9. Kamenshchikov D. 92. Kasyanov I. 1. Kenyaykin A. (G) 99. Kostin A. 82. Larionov K. 91. Molodtsov A. 7. Murza A. 87. Pshennikov E. 14. Yakovlev V.
Coaches
Klimov V.	Belov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Pusi B. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Umnikov M. ⚽,
32', Alshin I. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
43', 2 - 1, Pusi B. (Pen),
45', Giorgobiani N. 🟨,
45', Umnikov M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Rudenko V. ↓, Kamenshchikov D. ↑,
59', Gongadze G. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
59', Magomedov B. ↓, Kovalev A. ↑,
68', Umnikov M. ↓, Kostin A. ↑,
68', Gershun I. ↓, Murza A. ↑,
80', Kovalev A. 🟨,
81', Pusi B. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
82', Bagamaev A. ↓, Simonov K. ↑,
84', Voronin E. ↓, Yakovlev V. ↑,
85', Krasilnichenko O. ↓, Gutsa A. ↑,
90+2', Obukhov I. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: ) and 13).

Recent performances by Fakel have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Volga Ulyanovsk has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Volga Ulyanovsk has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fakel is the undisputed favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
28.09.25	Fakel - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Tekstilshchik Ivanovo - Fakel	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Fakel	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Rodina Moscow - Fakel	2:0 ✺
08.09.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTLW
- FC Volga Ulyanovsk
Russian FNL
29.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Kuban-Kholding - Volga Ulyanovsk	3:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:4 ✺
12.09.25	Torpedo Moscow - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	Shinnik - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TLLWL

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