Match Info

FNL - Round 10

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Kaplenkov I. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	MATCH! Planeta


	Rodina Moscow		Fakel

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	3.46
	2.31	3.05	3.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.2)	2.97 ↓ (3.08)	3.48 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodina Moscow
40.7%

Draw
32%

Fakel
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

30.8%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

30.7%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodina Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Rodina Moscow - Fakel Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Rodina will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Fakel will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Volkov S. (G) 80. Bessmertniy S. 55. Krizan M. 26. Meshchaninov A. (C) 3. Goglichidze L. 7. Gueye P. 23. Ushatov K. 10. Reyna Y. 6. Fishchenko R. 99. Timoshenko I. 9. Maksimenko A.	1. Frolkin D. (G) 44. Zhuravlev Y. 27. Magkeev S. 20. Yurganov I. 2. Cherov V. 18. Simonov K. 52. Netfullin R. (C) 97. Magomedov B. 99. Giorgobiani N. 19. Gaponov I. 93. Uridia M.
Substitutes
18. Abdusalamov M. 1. Aydarov S. (G) 5. Egorychev A. 72. Gordyushenko A. 20. Kontsevoy A. 77. Koryan A. 17. Postnikov N. 71. Svinov I. (G)	70. Abdokov N. 77. Bagatelia L. 21. Gongadze G. 17. Kovalev A. 11. Motpan N. 9. Turishchev M.
Coaches
Diaz J.	Shalimov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Reyna Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gueye P. 🟨,
61', Simonov K. 🟨,
62', 1 - 0, Gueye P. ⚽,
65', Uridia M. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
66', Pusi B. ↓, Gongadze G. ↑,
66', Magomedov B. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
67', Simonov K. ↓, Bagatelia L. ↑,
71', Timoshenko I. ↓, Gordyushenko A. ↑,
72', Ushatov K. ↓, Egorychev A. ↑,
75', Cherov V. ↓, Kovalev A. ↑,
79', Magkeev S. 🟨,
79', Gueye P. ↓, Kontsevoy A. ↑,
86', Reyna Y. ↓, Kuzmichev I. ↑,
90+2', Gordyushenko A. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Maksimenko A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Rodina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rodina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rodina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Rodina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Rodina Moscow - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 43.28%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodina Moscow
Russian FNL
07.09.25	Rodina Moscow - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	2:0 ✺
03.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Rodina Moscow	1:5 ✺
29.08.25	Rodina Moscow - Torpedo Moscow	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Shinnik - Rodina Moscow	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ufa - Rodina Moscow	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWTT
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
08.09.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Fakel	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ural - Fakel	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Fakel - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Fakel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL Cup
17.02.20	Rodina Moscow - Fakel	2:0

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