Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Famalicão		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.7
	2.1	3.2	3.75
	2.17	3.18	4.05
	2.09	3.13	3.96	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.09	3.34	3.65	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.89)	3.17 ↓ (3.19)	3.78 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
45.1%

Draw
29.9%

Farense
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

29.6%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

32.3%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Famalicão, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Farense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Famalicão - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Farense will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 2. Lucas Calegari 4. Mihaj E. 15. Riccieli (C) 5. Rafa Soares 28. Youssouf Z. 8. Topic M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. 10. Rochinha 11. Aranda O.	33. Velho R. (G) 44. Lucas Africo 29. Claudio Falcao 3. Moreno M. 28. Pastor 93. Menino M. 6. Neto 31. Derick Poloni 7. Balde E. 14. Poveda D. 77. Matias M. (C)
Substitutes
14. De Amorim M. 16. De Haas J. 22. Gabriel Cabral (G) 9. Gonzalez M. 18. Liimatta O. 17. Pinheiro R. 19. Rodrigues A. O. 7. Sorriso 6. Van de Looi T.	11. Bermejo A. 23. Canizares L. (G) 71. Jaiminho 4. Jorge A. 79. Merghem M. 34. Raul Silva 70. Rivaldo 21. Soares F. 9. Tomane
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Marreco T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Neto 🟨,
14', Gil Dias 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Matias M. ⚽, Balde E. (A),
33', Lucas Africo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Menino M. ⚽,
52', Balde E. 🟨,
52', Lucas Calegari ↓, Pinheiro R. ↑,
52', Rochinha ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
64', Poveda D. 🟨,
66', Youssouf Z. ↓, De Amorim M. ↑,
66', Gil Dias ↓, Sorriso ↑,
70', Matias M. ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
70', Poveda D. ↓, Tomane ↑,
76', Balde E. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Aranda O. (Pen),
82', Pastor 🟨,
83', Aranda O. 🟨,
85', Menino M. 🟨,
87', Menino M. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
88', Sa G. 🟨,
88', Neto ↓, Jorge A. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Famalicão won 1.

Famalicão is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Farense is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Famalicão is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Famalicão won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Famalicão won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 0.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
16.12.24	Braga - Famalicão	3:3 ✺
07.12.24	Famalicão - Porto	1:1 ✺
01.12.24	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
24.11.24	Famalicão - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.24	Famalicão - Arouca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TTLLT
- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
14.12.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Boavista - Farense	1:1 ✺
29.11.24	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Arouca - Farense	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.24	Casa Pia - Farense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.02.24	Farense - Famalicão	1:1
02.09.23	Famalicão - Farense	1:0
27.02.21	Famalicão - Farense	0:0
18.10.20	Farense - Famalicão	3:3
Portuguese Liga 2
19.01.19	Famalicão - Farense	0:0
11.08.18	Farense - Famalicão	1:0
13.03.16	Farense - Famalicão	2:2

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