Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
Norway	VG+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
International	Triller TV+


	Famalicão		Porto

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.2	1.45	Watch
	6.4	4.45	1.46	Watch
	7.3	4.6	1.48
	5.06	3.89	1.66	Watch
	6.44	4.26	1.56	Watch
	5	3.9	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.12 ↑ (5)	4.22 ↑ (3.4)	1.54 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
15.6%

Draw
22.6%

Porto
61.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.4%

27%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19%

26.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Porto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	10.5%	73.7%

Famalicão - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Porto will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 3. Realpe L. 55. Ba I. 28. Pedro Bondo 14. De Amorim M. 6. Van de Looi T. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 21. Zabiri Y.	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 86. Mora R. 7. William Gomes 9. Samu 11. Pepê
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 12. Elisor S. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 8. Pena M. 5. Rafa Soares 13. Renan Santana 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 52. Fernandes M. 27. Gul D. 21. Prpic D. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 10. Veiga G.
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Bednarek J. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
22', Gil Dias 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Froholdt V. ⚽, Moura F. (A),
45+3', Rosario P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
53', Sa G. 🟨,
58', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
58', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
61', Costa A. 🟨,
66', Pinheiro R. 🟨,
68', Zabiri Y. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
68', Pedro Bondo ↓, Rafa Soares ↑,
68', Gil Dias ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
79', De Amorim M. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
82', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
82', Costa A. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
90+3', Rafa Soares 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 0.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Porto has had a series of away games.

In this match, Porto is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Beney R. (Inactive) Pastor G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:37. (average 1.2:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1.1:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	São João de Ver - Famalicão	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Famalicão - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWTT
- FC Porto
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Utrecht - Porto	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.11.25	Porto - Braga	2:1 ✺
27.10.25	Moreirense - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Porto	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Celoricense - Porto	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.04.25	Porto - Famalicão	2:1
07.12.24	Famalicão - Porto	1:1
13.04.24	Porto - Famalicão	2:2
02.12.23	Famalicão - Porto	0:3
20.05.23	Famalicão - Porto	2:4
Taça de Portugal
04.05.23	Porto - Famalicão	3:2
26.04.23	Famalicão - Porto	1:2

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