Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Israel	Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Famalicão		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.9	7	Watch
	1.52	4.15	5.9	Watch
	1.52	4.22	6.39	Watch
	1.5	4	6	Watch
	1.55	4.21	6.75	Watch
	1.52	4	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.65)	4.08 ↑ (3.55)	6.4 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
62.2%

Draw
23.1%

Estrela da Amadora
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.6%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

24.3%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Famalicão's performance.

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Famalicão (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Estrela (5.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Famalicão will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Estrela (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 3. Realpe L. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. 7. Sorriso 21. Zabiri Y.	40. Ribeiro R. (G) 17. Encada J. 14. Bernardo Schappo 30. Luan Patrick 83. Otavio 19. Moreira P. 6. Ngom O. 63. Sola A. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 11. Jovane
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 55. Ba I. 18. Beney R. 12. Elisor S. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 8. Pena M. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	7. Antonetti L. 79. Chernev A. 89. Gastao J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 18. Meireles J. 21. Montoia G. 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho 10. Stoica I.
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Nuno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Luan Patrick (Own goal),
10', 1 - 1, Kikas ⚽, Otavio (A),
18', Encada J. 🟨,
24', 1 - 2, Jovane ⚽,
27', 2 - 2, Sorriso ⚽, Gil Dias (A),
36', Sa G. 🟨,
44', Otavio ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 2 - 3, Jovane ⚽,
68', De Amorim M. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
69', Marcus A. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
69', Sola A. ↓, Robinho ↑,
77', Kikas ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
77', Jovane ↓, Chernev A. ↑,
79', Zabiri Y. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
79', Rafa Soares ↓, Beney R. ↑,
82', Chernev A. 🟨,
82', Rodrigo Pinho 🟨,
84', Beney R. 🟨,
87', Gil Dias 🟨,
88', Stoica I. 🟨,
90', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
90', Pinheiro R. ↓, Garcia ↑,
90+1', Montoia G. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 14).

Famalicão is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Estrela has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Famalicão is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Abubakar U. (Inactive) Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Pastor G. (Inactive) Pedro Bondo (International duty)

There will not play in Estrela: Alisson Souza (Inactive) Ni (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 0.8:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
22.12.25	Benfica - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
06.12.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLT
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
20.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
15.12.25	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.11.25	Valladolid - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
25.01.25	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
19.08.24	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	0:3
16.03.24	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
29.10.23	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	1:0

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