Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
World	Triller TV+


	Sporting Lisbon		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	1.11	7.5	15	Watch
	1.11	8.8	16.5	Watch
	1.14	9.63	19.39
	1.11	9.25	20.34	Watch
	1.16	8.99	18	Watch
	1.15	7.5	15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↑ (1.1)	8.61 ↓ (9.91)	17.37 ↓ (19.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
83.6%

Draw
11%

Estrela da Amadora
5.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.8%

9.5%

4.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	4.5%	4.5%

Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 78.9% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 5. Morita H. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 7. Quenda G. 97. Suarez L.	40. Ribeiro R. (G) 30. Luan Patrick 79. Chernev A. 14. Bernardo Schappo 21. Montoia G. 6. Ngom O. 19. Moreira P. 55. Cabral S. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 11. Jovane
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 26. Diomande O. 8. Goncalves P. 14. Kochorashvili G. 2. Matheus Reis 28. Ribeiro R. 52. Simoes J. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	7. Antonetti L. 89. Gastao J. 18. Meireles J. 83. Otavio 1. Pinto D. (G) 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho 63. Sola A. 10. Stoica I.
Coaches
Borges R.	Silva L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Quaresma E. ⚽, Trincao (A),
11', 2 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽, Trincao (A),
25', 3 - 0, Fresneda I. ⚽,
27', Araujo M. 🟨,
33', Chernev A. ↓, Otavio ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Araujo M. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
46', Montoia G. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
55', 4 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽, Morita H. (A),
60', Fresneda I. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
60', Catamo G. ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
66', Jovane ↓, Robinho ↑,
78', Hjulmand M. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
78', Trincao ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
79', Kikas ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
79', Marcus A. ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 13).

Sporting is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Estrela has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sporting is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Debast Z. (Injury) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Estrela: Ni (Inactive)

There are questionable in Sporting: Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:5. (average 3.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Club Brugge	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Marinhense	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Juventus - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
31.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWTW
- Estrela da Amadora
Club Friendly
19.11.25	Valladolid - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
25.10.25	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Alpendorada - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
29.03.25	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	0:3
01.11.24	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	5:1
29.03.24	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
05.11.23	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	3:2
Club Friendly
14.07.23	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:1

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