Match Info

Date: 22 September 2021, Wednesday


	Famalicão		Penafiel

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.6	5
	1.68	3.8	4.85	Watch
	1.58	3.8	5.2
	1.62	3.64	5.39
	1.65	3.4	5	Watch
	1.65	3.78	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.39)	3.67 ↓ (4.05)	5.12 ↓ (7.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
56.6%

Draw
25.3%

Penafiel
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

22.4%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

13.5%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Famalicão's form might have worsened.

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penafiel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Famalicão that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Famalicão - Penafiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Famalicão is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Famalicão is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Famalicão won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Famalicão won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
18.09.21	Famalicão - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
12.09.21	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
28.08.21	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
20.08.21	Arouca - Famalicão	2:1 ✺
15.08.21	Famalicão - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTTLL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
17.09.21	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
12.09.21	Penafiel - Nacional	1:0 ✺
30.08.21	Trofense - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
21.08.21	Penafiel - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
15.08.21	Penafiel - Benfica B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.01.19	Penafiel - Famalicão	1:2
19.08.18	Famalicão - Penafiel	2:0
21.01.18	Famalicão - Penafiel	1:2
13.08.17	Penafiel - Famalicão	1:1
26.02.17	Penafiel - Famalicão	0:2
21.09.16	Famalicão - Penafiel	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
31.07.16	Famalicão - Penafiel	0:3

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