Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)


	Chaves		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	5.25
	1.62	3.7	5.15
	1.64	4.07	5.28
	1.62	4.06	4.97	Watch
	1.62	3.6	4.8
	1.65	3.56	5.5
	1.6	3.8	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.72)	3.74 ↑ (3.69)	5.18 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
57.3%

Draw
24.8%

Portimonense
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

25.1%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

23.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Portimonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chaves - Portimonense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chaves will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Gudzulic M. (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 22. Muscat Z. 19. Tiago Almeida 8. Pinho P. (C) 97. Joao Teixeira 30. Kusso D. 21. Wellington Carvalho 17. Roberto 77. Reinaldo	77. Cibois S. (G) 5. Heitor (C) 37. Mateus Sarara 2. Abel A. 17. Joao Reis 15. Xavier 47. Cagro W. 31. Edney 8. Lobato S. 18. Mamede 93. Welinton Junior
Substitutes
44. Bikoro F. 15. Carraca 27. Esajas R. 20. Ktatau 9. Milovanovic U. 7. Paulo Victor 10. Pina R. 26. Rodrigues G. 1. Vozinha (G)	90. Canario F. 66. Canji A. 21. Dauda M. 19. Dju M. 73. Junior M. 26. Maycon Cleiton (G) 9. Monteiro T. 6. Neves S. 23. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Martins F.	Fernandes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Mateus Sarara 🟨,
30', Xavier 🟨,
33', Wellington Carvalho 🟨,
39', Cagro W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Abel A. ⚽,
53', Kusso D. 🟨,
60', Wellington Carvalho ↓, Esajas R. ↑,
60', Muscat Z. ↓, Carraca ↑,
63', Welinton Junior ↓, Monteiro T. ↑,
66', Bruno Rodrigues 🟨,
71', Mateus Sarara ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
71', Lobato S. ↓, Dauda M. ↑,
79', Pinho P. 🟨,
80', Kusso D. ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
80', Pinho P. ↓, Ktatau ↑,
86', Dauda M. ↓, Neves S. ↑,
87', Bruno Rodrigues ↓, Pina R. ↑,
90+4', Monteiro T. 🟨,
90+5', Cibois S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 3.

Chaves is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Portimonense has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Portimonense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chaves is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Chaves will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Chaves won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
12.12.25	Oliveirense - Chaves	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Torreense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Chaves - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTW
- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.25	Portimonense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Portimonense	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Portimonense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Porto B - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Portimonense - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
12.04.25	Chaves - Portimonense	2:0
30.11.24	Portimonense - Chaves	1:2
Liga Portugal
07.04.24	Chaves - Portimonense	2:3
11.11.23	Portimonense - Chaves	2:1
11.03.23	Chaves - Portimonense	2:0
16.09.22	Portimonense - Chaves	1:0
29.01.19	Portimonense - Chaves	0:1

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