Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 1 July 2026, Wednesday


	Fasil Kenema		Ethiopian Medhin

	1	X	2
	3.20	2.80	2.28
	3.31	2.75	2.41	Watch
				Watch
	3.2	2.8	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	2.78 ↓ (2.8)	2.31 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fasil Kenema
28.1%

Draw
32.6%

Ethiopian Medhin
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

32.2%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

31.7%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fasil Kenema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Ethiopian Medhin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fasil Kenema than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ethiopian Medhin than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', 1 - 0, Kenema T. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fasil Kenema won 2.

Fasil Kenema has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ethiopian Medhin is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Ethiopian Medhin has had a series of away games.

Ethiopian Medhin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Fasil Kenema won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 0.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fasil Kenema won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ethiopian Insurance	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Fasil Kenema	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fasil Kenema FC
Ethiopian Premier League
26.06.26	Saint George - Fasil Kenema	1:0 ✺
22.06.26	Fasil Kenema - Arba Minch	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Hadiya Hossana - Fasil Kenema	0:1 ✺
29.05.26	Fasil Kenema - Sheger Ketema	0:1 ✺
20.05.26	Ethiopia Bunna - Fasil Kenema	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWLL
- Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Premier League
27.06.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Shire Endaselassie	0:3 ✺
21.06.26	Mechal - Ethiopian Medhin	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1 ✺
Ethiopian Cup
26.05.26	Sidama Coffee - Ethiopian Medhin	3:2 penalties ✺
Ethiopian Premier League
19.05.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Welayta Dicha	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
05.02.26	Ethiopian Medhin - Fasil Kenema	0:0
13.05.25	Fasil Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	0:2
05.02.25	Ethiopian Medhin - Fasil Kenema	0:1
09.03.24	Ethiopian Medhin - Fasil Kenema	0:2
13.10.23	Fasil Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1
11.06.23	Fasil Kenema - Ethiopian Medhin	0:0
15.12.22	Ethiopian Medhin - Fasil Kenema	0:0

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