The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ferrocarril Midland 54.1%
Draw 28.2%
Atlético de Rafaela 17.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
52.9%
28.9%
18.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
54.1%
28.1%
17.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
Atlético de Rafaela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
The ML Model estimate for Ferrocarril Midland aligns with the current prediction.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Ferrocarril Midland - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Bergia M. (G)
9. Albertengo L.
11. Bonifacio J.
4. Cainelli N.
10. Obando A.
3. Ramos N.
8. Rodriguez A.
7. Rojas T.
5. Soloa F.
2. Solveyra A.
6. Yegros U.
Substitutes
15. Capurro J.
16. Fernandez M.
14. Flores L.
12. Martinez R. (G)
13. Morello M.
20. Moreno M.
17. Pardo M.
19. Protti I.
18. Quiroga M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Bulacio D. ⚽, Marin F. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Marin F. ⚽, Roseti M. (A),
28', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
68', Cainelli N. ↓, Pardo M. ↑,
70', Perales J. ↓, Guzman D. ↑,
70', Luna R. ↓, Camano J. ↑,
70', Rojas T. 🟨,
78', Soloa F. ↓, Capurro J. ↑,
78', Marin F. ↓, Madalon V. ↑,
78', Rojas T. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
78', Bonifacio J. ↓, Quiroga M. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Recalde L. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Violini N. ↓, Cao R. ↑,
86', Bulacio D. ↓, Abruzzese M. ↑,
90+2', 4 - 0, Abruzzese M. ⚽,
Preview
An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Primera Nacional Promotion - Playoffs and 11th).
Ferrocarril has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Atlético Rafaela has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
In this matchup, Ferrocarril is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Ferrocarril has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:1.
Last Results with these Odds
Ferrocarril Midland - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 52.88%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.
Atlético de Rafaela - the odds 5.06 are the expected chance of winning is 18.26%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.