Match Info

Cearense - Championship Group - Round 1

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Ferroviário Fortaleza		Ceará

	1	X	2
	7.34	3.99	1.39
	5.21	3.61	1.62	Watch
	6	3.6	1.44
	7.19	3.9	1.42
	8	4.25	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.75 ↑ (5.07)	3.87 ↑ (3.52)	1.46 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ferroviário Fortaleza
13.6%

Draw
23.6%

Ceará
62.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

26.1%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

25.1%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ceará's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Sivaldo Junior (G) 4. Iago Reis 9. Jefinho 15. Joao Neto 17. Kiuan 3. Leo Paraiso (C) 5. Luan 16. Mena Y. 6. Pedrinho 2. Ramires 10. Thalisson	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 21. Alex Silva 33. Eder (C) 17. Fernando 63. Gilmar 31. Lucas Lima 99. Lucca 8. Matheus Araujo 7. Pedro Henrique 29. Vina 25. Vinicius Zanocelo
Substitutes
14. Bruno Miranda 18. Camilo 23. Jeffao 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 19. Rosa B. 20. Thiago Pulga 33. Victor Brasil (G) 12. Victor Diotti	14. Eric Melo 11. Fernandinho 71. Gabriel Rocha 35. Giulio 81. Joao Gabriel 23. Jorge (G) 10. Juan Alano 18. Julio Cesar 40. Melk 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 26. Richardson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Gilmar ⚽, Vina (A),
10', Alex Silva ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
23', Gilmar 🟨,
26', Pedrinho 🟨,
37', 0 - 2, Matheus Araujo ⚽, Pedro Henrique (A),
45', 0 - 3, Matheus Araujo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', Joao Neto 🟨,
57', Jefinho ↓, Camilo ↑,
57', Pedrinho ↓, Pablo Maldini ↑,
69', Matheus Araujo ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
69', Pedro Henrique ↓, Melk ↑,
75', 0 - 4, Lucas Lima ⚽,
76', Vina ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
76', Lucas Lima ↓, Richardson ↑,
80', 1 - 4, Mena Y. ⚽, Leo Paraiso (A),
82', Luan ↓, Victor Diotti ↑,
82', Kiuan ↓, Paulo Ricardo ↑,
84', Victor Diotti 🟨,
85', 1 - 5, Fernandinho ⚽, Juan Alano (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 1.

Ferroviário has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceará is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ceará is the team to beat.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 14:27. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviário won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:20. (average 1.2:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
22.01.26	Quixadá - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Horizonte	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
06.01.26	Maracanã - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Fares Lopes
27.11.25	Tirol - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WTTWL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
21.01.26	Tirol - Ceará	1:4 ✺
17.01.26	Ceará - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Ceará - Maranguape	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
26.01.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:2
16.03.24	Ceará - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1
09.03.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	2:3
31.01.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
19.05.21	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	0:3
10.03.21	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	2:1

Upcoming Matches