Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 4

Date: 12 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Sao Paulo)


	Ferroviária		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3	3.7
	1.95	3.1	3.75
	2.04	2.98	4.21
	1.85	3.1	3.7
	1.96	3.14	3.97	Watch
	1.99	3	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.43)	3.05 ↑ (2.9)	3.86 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
46.7%

Draw
29.8%

Náutico Capibaribe
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

31.6%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

30.6%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferroviária's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferroviária that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Ferroviária - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (C) 9. de Moura C. 3. Gustavo Medina 6. Igor Fernandes 4. Jackson 10. Juninho 5. Ricardinho 2. Rodrigues L. 11. Vitor Barreto 8. Xavier 7. Ze Mateus	22. Jeferson Romario (G) 2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 36. Diego Matos 43. Guilherme Matos 10. Gustavo Maia 72. Marco Antonio 8. Marco Antonio 25. Sousa 23. Thiago Lopes 26. Wendel Lessa
Substitutes
19. Antonio Gabriel 16. Caua A. 23. Danilo 18. Fernando Boldrin 12. Leo Wall (G) 17. Luis Henrique 13. Maycon 15. Paulinho Santos 21. Pedro P. 14. Ronaldo Alves 20. Victor Andrade 22. Weverton (G)	78. Andrey 18. Danilo Belao 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 16. Felipe 21. Leandro Barcia 48. Leandro Kaua 32. Leo (G) 30. Lorran 6. Luiz Paulo 20. Patrick Allan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Bruno Mezenga 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Juninho ⚽,
43', Arnaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wendel Lessa ↓, Andrey ↑,
47', Andrey 🟨,
53', Rodrigues L. 🟨,
58', 🟨,
61', Thiago Lopes ↓, Leandro Barcia ↑,
68', Gustavo Maia ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
72', Vitor Barreto ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
74', Guilherme Matos 🟨,
82', de Moura C. ↓, Caua A. ↑,
82', Juninho ↓, Pedro P. ↑,
82', Ze Mateus ↓, Fernando Boldrin ↑,
90', Arnaldo ↓, Leandro Kaua ↑,
90', Rodrigues L. ↓, Weverton ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, de Sousa Oliveira T. ⚽,
90+8', 2 - 1, Pedro P. ⚽,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Náutico could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ferroviária will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
04.05.24	Floresta - Ferroviária	1:4 ✺
28.04.24	CS Alagoano - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
22.04.24	Ferroviária - ABC	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
27.03.24	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	0:1 penalties ✺
24.03.24	CA Juventus - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTTLT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.24	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	0:3 ✺
21.04.24	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
10.04.24	Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
06.04.24	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTLTL

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