Match Info

Serie A - Round 34

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fiorentina		Sassuolo

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	3.6	Watch
	1.93	3.4	4.1
	1.92	3.25	4.45
	2.09	3.36	4.05
	2.01	3.38	3.93	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.3
	2.03	3.38	4.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.95)	3.32 ↑ (3.25)	3.94 ↓ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
47.5%

Draw
28.5%

Sassuolo
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

29.3%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

29.7%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	14.3%	4.8%

Fiorentina - Sassuolo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sassuolo (3.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (29 of 37 users predict this - 78.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.12% – 91.64%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Sassuolo (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 3. Rugani D. 6. Ranieri L. 62. Balbo L. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 10. Gudmundsson A. 19. Solomon M.	13. Turati S. (G) 6. Walukiewicz S. 21. Idzes J. 80. Muharemovic T. 23. Garcia U. 90. Kone I. 18. Matic N. (C) 42. Thorstvedt K. 7. Volpato C. 99. Pinamonti A. 45. Lauriente A.
Substitutes
61. Braschi R. 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 69. Puzzoli G.	25. Coulibaly W. 3. Doig J. 20. Fadera A. 33. Frangella C. 44. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 24. Moro L. 49. Muric A. (G) 8. Nzola M. 66. Pedro Felipe 19. Romagna F. 12. Satalino G. (G) 40. Vranckx A. 16. Zacchi G. (G)
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Grosso F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Ranieri L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Mandragora R. 🟨,
65', Volpato C. ↓, Lipani L. ↑,
66', Harrison J. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
67', Mandragora R. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
74', Kone I. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
74', Pinamonti A. ↓, Nzola M. ↑,
75', Balbo L. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
81', Lauriente A. 🟨,
88', Lauriente A. ↓, Moro L. ↑,
88', Matic N. ↓, Vranckx A. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

Fiorentina is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sassuolo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sassuolo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fiorentina is the team to beat.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Injury) Kean M. (Calf Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Parisi F. (Inactive) Pongracic M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Sassuolo: Berardi D. (Red Card) Boloca D. (Muscle Injury) Cande F. (Knee Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Fortini N. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Sassuolo: Bakola D. (Injury) Romagna F. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 36:30. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.1:1.2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.35% Sassuolo: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9:9	0	7
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.8%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
20.04.26	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Fiorentina - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.04.26	Fiorentina - Lazio	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Verona - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWWLW
- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
17.04.26	Sassuolo - Como	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Genoa - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Sassuolo - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Juventus - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sassuolo - Bologna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
06.12.25	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	3:1
28.04.24	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	5:1
06.01.24	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	1:0
02.06.23	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	1:3
07.01.23	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	2:1
26.02.22	Sassuolo - Fiorentina	2:1
19.12.21	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	2:2

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