Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 13 April 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	04:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	20:45	DAZN 2, DAZN
Brazil	15:45	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	14:45	DAZN Canada, FuboTV
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	20:45	DAZN France
Georgia	22:45	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	20:45	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 1
Haiti	14:45	Tele Haiti
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:45	Arena 4
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	21:45	Shasha
Malaysia	02:45	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	20:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	12:45	Disney+
New Zealand	06:45	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	20:45	VG+
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV2
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	21:45	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	21:45	STC TV
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	20:45	Sport 1
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 3
South Korea	03:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	01:45	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	19:45	Diwan Sport
Turkey	21:45	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
United Kingdom	19:45	DAZN
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
Vietnam	01:45	TV 360, VTVcab
International	18:45	Starzplay Sports app


	Fiorentina		Lazio

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.42	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.42	3.16	3.4
	2.38	3.12	3.27	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.9
	2.47	3.23	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.28)	3.13 ↑ (3)	3.23 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
39.7%

Draw
30.6%

Lazio
29.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.7%

31.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

31%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lazio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.6%	52.8%	16.7%

Fiorentina - Lazio Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 9 - 27.3%). Lazio will win (votes: 6 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 37.5% – 71.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lazio (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 50%). Lazio (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 3. Rugani D. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.	40. Motta E. (G) 29. Lazzari M. 13. Romagnoli A. 25. Provstgaard O. 17. Tavares N. 26. Basic T. 4. Patric 24. Taylor K. 22. Cancellieri M. 19. Dia B. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 53. Christensen O. (G) 71. Cianciulli S. 15. Comuzzo P. 64. Deli L. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 69. Puzzoli G. 19. Solomon M.	21. Belahyane R. 32. Cataldi D. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 99. Giacomone G. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 14. Noslin T. 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 28. Przyborek A. 20. Ratkov P.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Gosens R. ⚽, Harrison J. (A),
31', Rugani D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Basic T. ↓, Dele-Bashiru F. ↑,
46', Zaccagni M. ↓, Noslin T. ↑,
63', Noslin T. 🟨,
67', Cancellieri M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
67', Dia B. ↓, Pedro ↑,
71', Rugani D. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
79', Taylor K. ↓, Ratkov P. ↑,
80', Gosens R. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
80', Dodo 🟨,
84', Fazzini J. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
90+1', Piccoli R. 🟨,
90+4', Pedro 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Lazio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of away games.

Recently, Lazio has had a series of home games.

Fiorentina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.6:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lazio	9	8	1	0	22:7	15	25
19	Fiorentina	8	1	1	6	9:19	-10	4

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Lazio: 5.08% Fiorentina: 0.18%

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.66%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Verona - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.03.26	Cremonese - Fiorentina	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTWW
- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Lazio - Parma	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Lazio - Milan	1:0 ✺
09.03.26	Lazio - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.03.26	Lazio - Atalanta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2
26.01.25	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:2
22.09.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1
26.02.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1
30.10.23	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:0
29.01.23	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:1
10.10.22	Fiorentina - Lazio	0:4

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