Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 13 April 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fiorentina		Lazio

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.42	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.42	3.16	3.4
	2.38	3.12	3.27	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.9
	2.47	3.23	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.28)	3.13 ↑ (3)	3.23 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
39.7%

Draw
30.6%

Lazio
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

31.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

30.8%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lazio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.6%	52.8%	16.7%

Fiorentina - Lazio Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 9 - 27.3%). Lazio will win (votes: 6 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 37.5% – 71.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lazio (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 50%). Lazio (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 3. Rugani D. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.	40. Motta E. (G) 29. Lazzari M. 13. Romagnoli A. 25. Provstgaard O. 17. Tavares N. 26. Basic T. 4. Patric 24. Taylor K. 22. Cancellieri M. 19. Dia B. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 53. Christensen O. (G) 71. Cianciulli S. 15. Comuzzo P. 64. Deli L. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 69. Puzzoli G. 19. Solomon M.	21. Belahyane R. 32. Cataldi D. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 55. Furlanetto A. (G) 99. Giacomone G. (G) 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 14. Noslin T. 9. Pedro 3. Pellegrini Lu. 28. Przyborek A. 20. Ratkov P.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Gosens R. ⚽, Harrison J. (A),
31', Rugani D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Basic T. ↓, Dele-Bashiru F. ↑,
46', Zaccagni M. ↓, Noslin T. ↑,
63', Noslin T. 🟨,
67', Cancellieri M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
67', Dia B. ↓, Pedro ↑,
71', Rugani D. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
79', Taylor K. ↓, Ratkov P. ↑,
80', Gosens R. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
80', Dodo 🟨,
84', Fazzini J. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
90+1', Piccoli R. 🟨,
90+4', Pedro 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Lazio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of away games.

Recently, Lazio has had a series of home games.

Fiorentina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.6:2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Lazio: 0.93% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.66%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Verona - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.03.26	Cremonese - Fiorentina	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTWW
- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Lazio - Parma	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Lazio - Milan	1:0 ✺
09.03.26	Lazio - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.03.26	Lazio - Atalanta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2
26.01.25	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:2
22.09.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1
26.02.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1
30.10.23	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:0
29.01.23	Lazio - Fiorentina	1:1
10.10.22	Fiorentina - Lazio	0:4

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