Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, Q Football Asia, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	21:00	VOOsport World 2
Bulgaria	22:00	Play Diema Xtra, Ring, Voyo
Chile	15:00	Disney+
China	03:00	ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 7
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	22:00	Sport 4
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Arena
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Moldova	22:00	We Sport
Mongolia	03:00	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Extra 2
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sports 2
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 2
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Fiorentina		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.2	3.7	2.15
	3.46	3.67	2.12
	3.35	3.53	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.05
	3.43	3.62	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (2.48)	3.55 ↑ (3.32)	2.11 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
28.3%

Draw
26.7%

Crystal Palace
45.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.6%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.3%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

Crystal Palace has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crystal Palace's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crystal Palace, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.4%	17.4%	52.2%

Fiorentina - Crystal Palace Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). Crystal Palace will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crystal Palace: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Crystal Palace (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. 17. Harrison J. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 91. Piccoli R. 19. Solomon M.	1. Henderson D. (C) 26. Richards C. 5. Lacroix M. 23. Canvot J. 2. Munoz D. 20. Wharton A. 18. Kamada D. 3. Mitchell T. 7. Sarr I. 14. Mateta J. 10. Pino Y.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 53. Christensen O. (G) 64. Deli L. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 27. Ndour C. 69. Puzzoli G.	44. Benitez W. (G) 59. Cardines R. 17. Clyne N. 55. Devenny J. 19. Hughes W. 11. Johnson B. 22. Larsen J. S. 8. Lerma J. 31. Matthews R. (G) 34. Riad C. 42. Rodney K. 24. Sosa B.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Sarr I. ⚽, Munoz D. (A),
30', Wharton A. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
30', 1 - 1, Gudmundsson A. (Penalty Awarded),
40', Pino Y. 🟨,
40', Pongracic M. 🟨,
41', Lacroix M. ↓, Riad C. ↑,
45+5', Comuzzo P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mateta J. ↓, Larsen J. S. ↑,
46', Fagioli N. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
53', 2 - 1, Ndour C. ⚽, Solomon M. (A),
53', Sarr I. 🟨,
67', Ranieri L. 🟨,
70', Comuzzo P. ↓, Kouadio E. ↑,
70', Gosens R. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
73', Pino Y. ↓, Hughes W. ↑,
75', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
75', Solomon M. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
76', Riad C. 🟨,
87', Ndour C. 🟨,
90+1', Piccoli R. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Crystal Palace has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Injury) Dodo (Yellow Cards) Fortini N. (Back Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Rugani D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Guessand E. (Injury) Nketiah E. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Kean M. (Calf Injury) Parisi F. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fiorentina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
13.04.26	Fiorentina - Lazio	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Verona - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWTW
- Crystal Palace
English Premier League
12.04.26	Crystal Palace - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
19.03.26	AEK Larnaca - Crystal Palace	1:2 ET ✺
English Premier League
15.03.26	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0

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