Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 26

Date: 14 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Gol Stadium
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.3
	2.15	3.4	3.3
	2.21	3.43	3.47
	2.17	3.39	3.39	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.3
	2.21	3.32	3.36	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.22)	3.37 ↑ (3.27)	3.34 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
43.5%

Draw
28.1%

Fortaleza
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

28.9%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

29.8%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 65% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mycael (G) 26. Erick (C) 4. Kaique Rocha 15. Gamarra M. 37. Esquivel L. 3. Gabriel 57. Joao Cruz 10. Zapelli B. 28. Cuello 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 14. Canobbio A.	1. Joao Ricardo (C) 33. Mancuso E. 13. Kuscevic B. 25. Cardona T. 36. Felipe Jonatan 28. Pedro Augusto 17. Ze Welison 77. Andrade K. 11. Marinho 21. Moises 79. Renato Kayzer
Substitutes
7. Di Yorio L. 23. Felipinho 29. Godoy L. 20. Julimar 61. Leo Derik 24. Leo Linck (G) 22. Madson 43. Marcos Victor 11. Nikao 92. Pablo 8. Praxedes 44. Thiago Heleno	26. Breno Lopes 10. Calebe 35. Hercules 14. Jhonatan Silva 37. Kauan 88. Lucas Sasha 9. Lucero J. 39. Machuca I. 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 7. Pochettino T. 2. Tinga 4. Titi
Coaches
Varini M.	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Moises ⚽, Mancuso E. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Canobbio A. ⚽, Cuello (A),
39', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Pablo ↑,
60', Moises ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
61', Joao Cruz 🟨,
68', Andrade K. ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
68', Mancuso E. ↓, Tinga ↑,
72', Zapelli B. ↓, Julimar ↑,
73', Cuello ↓, Praxedes ↑,
78', Marinho ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
79', Renato Kayzer ↓, Machuca I. ↑,
85', Joao Ricardo 🟨,
85', Joao Cruz ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
90', Canobbio A. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 0.

Athletico PR is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Fortaleza is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Athletico PR will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Fernandinho (Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Matheus Rossetto (Injury) Santos (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
11.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Vasco da Gama	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.08.24	Vasco da Gama - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.08.24	Vasco da Gama - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.08.24	Belgrano - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
11.09.24	Internacional RS - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
25.08.24	Fortaleza - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.08.24	Fortaleza - Rosario Central	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.06.24	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
08.11.23	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	1:1
09.07.23	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
05.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	1:1
12.06.22	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
23.10.21	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	3:0
03.07.21	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	2:1

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