Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Juan Domingo Perón (Avellaneda)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DGO
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Venezuela	Inter
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Racing		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.33	7	Watch
	1.49	4	6.5
	1.5	4	6.5	Watch
	1.5	4.16	7.15
	1.5	4.11	7.2	Watch
	1.44	4	6	Watch
	1.54	4.1	6.27	Watch
	1.5	4	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.98)	4.09 ↑ (3.35)	6.64 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Racing
62.9%

Draw
23%

Athletico Paranaense
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

27.5%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

26.9%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing's performance.

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Racing - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: Racing will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Arias G. (G) 3. Di Cesare M. 13. Sosa S. 35. Quiros S. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 5. Nardoni J. 32. Almendra A. E. 27. Rojas G. 8. Quintero J. 9. Adrian Martinez 10. Martinez Tobinson R. B.	41. Mycael (G) 29. Godoy L. 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno 37. Esquivel L. 26. Erick 3. Gabriel 28. Cuello 10. Zapelli B. 14. Canobbio A. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
4. Barrios M. 25. Cambeses F. (G) 17. Carbonero J. 6. Colombo N. 20. German Conti 34. Mura F. 22. Rodriguez B. 7. Salas M. 30. Sigali L. 28. Solari S. 18. Urzi A. 36. Zuculini B.	88. Christian 7. Di Yorio L. 6. Fernando 15. Gamarra M. 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 24. Leo Linck (G) 22. Madson 43. Marcos Victor 34. Nikao 92. Pablo 8. Praxedes
Coaches
Costas G.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Almendra A. E. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Adrian Martinez ⚽, Martinez Tobinson R. B. (A),
30', Almendra A. E. 🟨,
35', Erick 🟨,
42', 3 - 0, Martinez Tobinson R. B. ⚽, Quintero J. (A),
44', Nardoni J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Pablo ↑,
46', Erick ↓, Christian ↑,
46', Godoy L. ↓, Nikao ↑,
47', 3 - 1, Nikao ⚽, Canobbio A. (A),
53', Canobbio A. 🟨,
64', Almendra A. E. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
64', Rojas G. ↓, Mura F. ↑,
67', Gabriel ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
72', Quintero J. ↓, Salas M. ↑,
77', 4 - 1, Martirena Torres G. N. ⚽,
80', Zapelli B. ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
90', Adrian Martinez ↓, German Conti ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Racing is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Athletico PR have a series of home games.

In this match Racing is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Racing won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Racing won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.09.24	Talleres de Córdoba - Racing	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Racing	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.09.24	Racing - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
01.09.24	Atlético Tucumán - Racing	1:0 ✺
25.08.24	Racing - Independiente	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLT
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.24	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Racing	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Vasco da Gama	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
19.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Racing	1:0
Torneos De Verano
15.01.20	Racing - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 penalties

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