Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Israel	Sport 4
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente del Valle		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.00	2.90	2.55	Watch
	2.95	3.00	2.45
	3.30	2.90	2.35	Watch
	3.30	3.04	2.52
	3.39	3.06	2.35
	3.15	2.95	2.50
	3.19	3.13	2.45	Watch
	2.85	3.10	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.75)	3.01 ↓ (3.05)	2.48 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
30.2%

Draw
31.5%

Flamengo
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

30.8%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

31.3%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	45.5%	54.5%

Independiente del Valle - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Flamengo (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. 19. Loor L. 28. Quintana H. 6. Alcivar J. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 17. Rodriguez A. 9. Gonzalez C. 31. Pata E.	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 10. de Arrascaeta G. 16. Samuel Lino 27. Bruno Henrique (C)
Substitutes
16. Briones R. 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 70. Peralta M. (G) 11. Perello M. 56. Quintero E. 99. Reasco D. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 23. Viacava J.	13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 30. Freitas J. 20. Lucas Paqueta 7. Luiz Araujo 8. Niguez S. 9. Pedro 19. Plata G. 14. Valencia A. 2. Varela G. 44. Vitao
Coaches
Papa J.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gonzalez C. ↓, Reasco D. ↑,
50', Pulgar E. 🟨,
57', Carabajal M. 🟨,
61', 0 - 1, Bruno Henrique ⚽, Samuel Lino (A),
72', Carrascal J. ↓, Plata G. ↑,
72', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Lucas Paqueta ↑,
75', Pata E. ↓, Perello M. ↑,
75', Sornoza J. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Leo Pereira ⚽, Emerson Royal (A),
85', Rodriguez A. ↓, Quintero E. ↑,
85', Quintana H. ↓, Ochoa Y. ↑,
85', Pulgar E. ↓, Varela G. ↑,
86', Bruno Henrique ↓, Pedro ↑,
90', Samuel Lino ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
90+2', Quintero E. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Knee Injury) Cazares (Knee Injury) Mercado P. (Knee Injury) Villar G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Calf Injury) Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury) Plata G. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Flamengo RJ: 20.78%

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 35.01%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.08.26	Independiente del Valle - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.08.26	Leones del Norte - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTWW
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Remo - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.08.26	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Recopa Sudamericana
28.02.23	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 penalties
21.02.23	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	1:0
Copa Libertadores
30.09.20	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	4:0
17.09.20	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	5:0
Recopa Sudamericana
26.02.20	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	3:0
19.02.20	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	2:2

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