Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Suriname	SCCN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	OneFootball TV


	Flamengo		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	1.25	6.5	9.5	Watch
	1.32	5.50	7.75
	1.26	5.25	10.5	Watch
	1.27	6.06	11.16
	1.27	6.09	10.18
	1.24	6	11
	1.26	6.54	9.1	Watch
	1.36	4.9	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.34)	5.86 ↑ (5.52)	9.55 ↑ (8.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
73.9%

Draw
16.2%

Independiente del Valle
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

17.3%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

17%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Flamengo - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 20. Lucas Paqueta 16. Samuel Lino 27. Bruno Henrique (C)	1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 11. Perello M. 28. Quintana H. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 31. Pata E. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
26. Alex Sandro 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 10. de Arrascaeta G. 18. de la Cruz N. 30. Freitas J. 7. Luiz Araujo 8. Niguez S. 9. Pedro 19. Plata G. 2. Varela G. 44. Vitao	16. Briones R. 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 18. Gongora S. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 70. Peralta M. (G) 56. Quintero E. 17. Rodriguez A. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 23. Viacava J.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
55', Jorginho 🟨,
58', Carabajal M. 🟨,
59', Lucas Paqueta ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
59', Carrascal J. ↓, Plata G. ↑,
65', Jorginho 🟨,
70', Bruno Henrique ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
75', Reasco D. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
80', Pulgar E. 🟨,
83', Perello M. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽, Rossi A. (A),
89', Pata E. ↓, Gongora S. ↑,
90+1', Samuel Lino ↓, Varela G. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 2.

Flamengo has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Ind del Valle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Flamengo is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Knee Injury) Cazares (Knee Injury) Mercado P. (Knee Injury) Villar G. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Flamengo will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:1. (average 2.7:0.3).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Flamengo RJ: 20.78%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Remo - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.26	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2
Recopa Sudamericana
28.02.23	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 penalties
21.02.23	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	1:0
Copa Libertadores
30.09.20	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	4:0
17.09.20	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	5:0
Recopa Sudamericana
26.02.20	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	3:0
19.02.20	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	2:2

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