Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN 2, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.55	4.7	Watch
	1.75	3.72	5.25
	1.8	3.68	4.55
	1.7	3.4	4.6
	1.76	3.7	4.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.88)	3.63 ↑ (3.37)	4.8 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
54.4%

Draw
26%

São Paulo
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

28.7%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Fluminense - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (C) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 16. Nonato 35. Hercules 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 11. Savarino J. 9. John Kennedy	23. Rafael (C) 19. Lucas Ramon 4. Matheus Doria 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 37. Artur 80. Cauly 18. Wendell 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
5. Bernal F. 14. Cano G. 19. Castillo R. 21. Igor Rabello 3. Jemmes 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 6. Rene 2. Samuel Xavier 90. Serna K. 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 48. Djhordney 30. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 38. Hugo Leonardo 15. Joao Moreira 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 46. Pedro Ferreira 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G.
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, John Kennedy ⚽, Guilherme Arana (A),
30', Andre Silva 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Canobbio A. ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', John Kennedy ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
61', Acosta L. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
64', Cauly ↓, Ferreira ↑,
67', Artur 🟨,
76', Diaz E. 🟨,
76', Wendell ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
77', Andre Silva ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Matheus Doria ⚽, Sabino (A),
83', Canobbio A. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
83', Nonato ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
86', Bernal F. 🟨,
90', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
90+5', Lucas Ramon ↓, Soares C. ↑,
90+7', Freytes J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 3.

Recent performances by Fluminense have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Paulo is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fluminense is the team to beat.

There will not play in Fluminense: Alisson (Yellow Cards) Cano G. (Muscle Injury) Martinelli (Hamstring Injury) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Franco A. (Inactive) Jonathan Calleri (Yellow Cards) Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lucas Ramon (Injury) Maik (Inactive) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Broken nose) Toloi R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Luciano (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:25. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:10. (average 2.1:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Fluminense: 0.71% Sao Paulo: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Fluminense - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Internacional RS - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Bolívar - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WTTLL
- São Paulo FC
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Juventude - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	OHiggins - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.11.25	Fluminense - São Paulo	6:0
27.07.25	São Paulo - Fluminense	3:1
01.09.24	Fluminense - São Paulo	2:0
13.05.24	São Paulo - Fluminense	2:1
22.11.23	Fluminense - São Paulo	1:0
01.07.23	São Paulo - Fluminense	1:0
05.11.22	Fluminense - São Paulo	3:1

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