Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DSports 1611
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	Dsports 1311
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Millonarios		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	4.1	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.9
	1.78	3.25	4.7
	1.83	3.41	4.83
	1.80	3.07	5.28	Watch
	1.95	3	3.9
	1.79	3.34	4.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.46)	3.21 ↑ (3.05)	4.48 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
50%

Draw
29.1%

São Paulo
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

30.3%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

30.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Millonarios's performance.

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Millonarios that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	22.2%	5.6%

Millonarios - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millonarios: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Millonarios (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Novoa D. (G) 2. Sarabia C. 26. Llinas A. 17. Arias J. 22. Valencia S. 30. Viveros S. 19. Garcia M. 18. Urena R. 14. Silva D. (C) 27. Contreras R. 23. Castro L.	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 28. Franco A. (C) 4. Matheus Doria 35. Sabino 21. Soares C. 33. Luan Silva 48. Djhordney 56. Bosshardt N. 14. Tapia G. 17. Andre Silva 80. Cauly
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 20. Banguero D. 33. Castro A. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 1. De Amores G. (G) 4. Elizalde E. 99. Hurtado J. 29. Moreno Paz A. F. 35. Mosquera S. 7. Quintero D. 28. Vega S. 8. Victoria Palacios D. S.	16. Bobadilla D. 34. dos Santos P. 30. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 38. Hugo Leonardo 40. Igor Felisberto 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 39. Paulinho 46. Pedro Ferreira 23. Rafael (G) 18. Wendell
Coaches
Bustos F.	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Andre Silva 🟨,
33', Bosshardt N. 🟨,
45+2', Carlos Coronel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Andre Silva ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
56', Djhordney ↓, Ferreira ↑,
62', Bosshardt N. ↓, Wendell ↑,
66', Silva D. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
70', Cauly ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
70', Luan Silva ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
77', Valencia S. ↓, Banguero D. ↑,
77', Viveros S. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
86', Castro L. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
86', Garcia M. ↓, Vega S. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Millonarios could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.7%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

São Paulo - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.95%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	América de Cali - Millonarios	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Millonarios - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
12.04.26	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	OHiggins - Millonarios	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLWTL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	São Paulo - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	São Paulo - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	São Paulo - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Vitória Salvador - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLWL

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