Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Referee: Colelli A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Folgore Caratese		Desenzano Calvina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	2.95	3.20
	2.28	2.90	2.88	Watch
	2.31	3.05	3.43
	2.14	3.02	3.47	Watch
	2.25	2.90	3.35
	2.14	3.40	3.50	Watch
	2.11	3.05	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.26)	3.04 ↓ (3.07)	3.31 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore Caratese
42%

Draw
30.3%

Desenzano Calvina
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

30%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

28.6%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore Caratese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Folgore Caratese - Desenzano Calvina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Castelnuovo M. (G) 24. Bellia E. 5. Marchetti S. 21. Gega E. 11. Balzano M. 80. Di Dio F. 8. Castellano F. (C) 28. Pedicillo L. 99. D'Amico F. 9. Spalluto S. 10. Vacca A.	1. Minelli S. (G) 70. Parlato M. 19. Pilati A. 6. Panelli T. 2. Milani L. 43. Lupano L. 15. De Francesco A. (C) 77. Liberati F. 24. Biondi K. 9. Santini C. 30. Procaccio A.
Substitutes
18. Ambrosini M. 19. Duca T. 29. Minerva F. 6. Ndoj E. 45. Nuzzi L. 1. Salvalaggio D. (G) 61. Santarcangelo A. 92. Tessiore A. 72. Vignoli M.	20. Andreis D. 49. Baldi L. 12. Bastianoni F. (G) 23. Bono F. 22. Cassin M. (G) 3. Giorgi L. 7. Moscati M. 17. Onofrio S. 96. Russini S. 8. Tomaselli S.
Coaches
Belmonte N.	Gaburro M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Parlato M. ⚽, Procaccio A. (A),
22', Castellano F. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Pedicillo L. ⚽, Balzano M. (A),
38', Gega E. 🟨,
45+2', Marchetti S. ↓, Duca T. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Milani L. ↓, Giorgi L. ↑,
46', Parlato M. ↓, Andreis D. ↑,
46', Spalluto S. 🟨,
58', Santini C. 🟨,
60', Vacca A. ↓, Santarcangelo A. ↑,
60', Di Dio F. ↓, Tessiore A. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Biondi K. ⚽,
79', Procaccio A. ↓, Russini S. ↑,
80', Biondi K. ↓, Baldi L. ↑,
81', Bellia E. ↓, Minerva F. ↑,
81', Pedicillo L. ↓, Ambrosini M. ↑,
82', Liberati F. 🟨,
90+2', Lupano L. ↓, Moscati M. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 15th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Folgore Caratese won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Folgore Caratese is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Folgore Caratese has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:6 (averaging 1:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Folgore Caratese against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:4 goals (averaging 1.3:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Desenzano	8	2	4	2	6:7	-1	10
17	Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9:12	-3	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie C Group A
26.09.26	Lumezzane - Folgore Caratese	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Giana Erminio	1:1 ✺
17.09.26	Pergolettese - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Alcione	2:3 ✺
07.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Folgore Caratese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTTLL
- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie C Group A
26.09.26	Desenzano Calvina - Juventus U23	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	Treviso - Desenzano Calvina	0:0 ✺
17.09.26	Desenzano Calvina - Lecco	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Brescia - Desenzano Calvina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
09.03.25	Folgore Caratese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1
07.04.24	Folgore Caratese - Desenzano Calvina	0:2
26.11.23	Desenzano Calvina - Folgore Caratese	0:0
05.03.23	Desenzano Calvina - Folgore Caratese	1:1
30.10.22	Folgore Caratese - Desenzano Calvina	3:0
01.05.22	Desenzano Calvina - Folgore Caratese	1:1
19.01.22	Folgore Caratese - Desenzano Calvina	2:1

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