Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 43

Date: 18 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Forest Green Rovers		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.2
	3.3	3.1	2.2
	3.4	3.3	2.2
	3.41	3.32	2.28
	3.4	3.1	2.2
	3.34	3.28	2.21	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (2.73)	3.23 ↑ (3.23)	2.21 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
28.1%

Draw
29.3%

Fleetwood Town
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

28.5%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

28.2%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Forest Green Rovers's form might have worsened.

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Forest Green Rovers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	15.4%	76.9%

Forest Green Rovers - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Forest Green will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Fleetwood will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fleetwood: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 14).

Forest Green is Relegated to League Two

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (99.97%), project points - 30, currently - 26, already of relegated.

Fleetwood has the most likely position - 14 (23.29%), project points - 58, currently - 53, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 11, very small importance 0, very small match rating 6. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Forest Green is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Fleetwood is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fleetwood will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
15.04.23	Forest Green Rovers - Barnsley	1:5 ✺
10.04.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
07.04.23	Forest Green Rovers - Derby County	0:2 ✺
01.04.23	Portsmouth - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	Forest Green Rovers - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLLLW
- Fleetwood Town
English League One
15.04.23	Accrington Stanley - Fleetwood Town	2:5 ✺
10.04.23	Fleetwood Town - Bristol Rovers	1:2 ✺
07.04.23	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Fleetwood Town - Exeter City	2:2 ✺
25.03.23	Fleetwood Town - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
25.10.22	Fleetwood Town - Forest Green Rovers	1:1
English National League
28.01.12	Forest Green Rovers - Fleetwood Town	N/A

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