Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 40

Date: 7 April 2023, Friday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)


	Forest Green Rovers		Derby County

	1	X	2
	6	4	1.57
	5.75	3.75	1.6
	5.65	4	1.6
	6.09	3.95	1.61
	5.8	3.7	1.6
	5.8	3.85	1.6	Watch
	5.8	3.75	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.84 ↑ (4.15)	3.86 ↑ (3.6)	1.6 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
16.2%

Draw
24.5%

Derby County
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

25.9%

51.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

25.7%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Forest Green Rovers's form might have worsened.

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Forest Green Rovers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Forest Green Rovers - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Forest Green will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 7).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (92.24%), project points - 31, currently - 26, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Derby has the most likely position - 6 (29.21%), project points - 76, currently - 64, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (46%), a small chance of promoted (10%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 13, small importance 13, small match rating 13. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
01.04.23	Portsmouth - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	Forest Green Rovers - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Forest Green Rovers - Bristol Rovers	1:3 ✺
04.03.23	Accrington Stanley - Forest Green Rovers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLLL
- Derby County
English League One
01.04.23	Derby County - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
25.03.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
11.03.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
07.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
17.12.22	Derby County - Forest Green Rovers	4:0

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