Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 42

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Forest Green Rovers		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	6	3.75	1.62
	5.75	3.9	1.57
	6.5	4.1	1.53
	6.12	3.91	1.62
	6	3.8	1.55
	5.95	3.96	1.57	Watch
	5.8	3.9	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.02 ↑ (3.8)	3.9 ↑ (3.45)	1.57 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
15.7%

Draw
24.2%

Barnsley
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

26.7%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

26.2%

49.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Forest Green Rovers's form might have worsened.

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barnsley's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Forest Green Rovers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barnsley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Forest Green Rovers - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: Barnsley will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (99.2%), project points - 30, currently - 26, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Barnsley has the most likely position - 4 (64.78%), project points - 89, currently - 78, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (87%), a chance of promoted (40%), a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has small quality 13, small importance 20, small match rating 16. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Forest Green is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Barnsley is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Barnsley is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
10.04.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
07.04.23	Forest Green Rovers - Derby County	0:2 ✺
01.04.23	Portsmouth - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	Forest Green Rovers - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLLWL
- Barnsley FC
English League One
10.04.23	Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town	2:1 ✺
07.04.23	Burton Albion - Barnsley	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Barnsley - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
28.03.23	Exeter City - Barnsley	3:1 ✺
21.03.23	Barnsley - Sheffield Wednesday	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
29.10.22	Barnsley - Forest Green Rovers	2:0

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