Match Info

Championship - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Tim Hortons Field (Hamilton, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	OneSoccer
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus


	Forge		CF Montréal

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.8	1.83
	3.93	3.4	1.88
	3.96	3.48	1.9	Watch
	3.48	3.89	1.95	Watch
	3.45	3.8	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.03)	3.67 ↑ (3.13)	1.88 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forge
25.4%

Draw
25.2%

CF Montréal
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

29.4%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

28.4%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

CF Montréal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting CF Montréal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forge than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Forge, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CF Montréal than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for CF Montréal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Forge - CF Montréal Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Montreal will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montreal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koleilat J. (G) 3. Jevremovic M. 5. Nimick D. 22. Jensen N. 81. Owolabi-Belewu M. 18. Babouli M. 24. Rama R. 10. Bekker K. (C) 9. Wright B. 11. Ampomah N. 13. Achinioti-Jonsson A.	40. Sirois J. (G) 39. Guboglo Y. 5. Craig B. 16. Waterman J. (C) 4. Alvarez F. 19. Saliba N. 22. Loturi V. 7. Opoku K. 27. Bugaj D. 3. Pearce T. 9. Owusu P.
Substitutes
36. Bontis D. (G) 32. Bruno Z. 33. Clow O. 12. Filion M. 16. Kane K. 41. Kone A. 28. Lipovschek K. 17. Massunda H. 6. Paton B.	1. Breza S. (G) 33. Gazdov E. (G) 35. Graham-Roache O. 14. Ibrahim S. 6. Piette S. 25. Sealy D. 28. Vilsaint J. 17. Vrioni G.
Coaches
Smyrniotis B.	Donadel M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Owolabi-Belewu M. 🟨,
35', Achinioti-Jonsson A. 🟨,
43', Waterman J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Bugaj D. ↓, Piette S. ↑,
60', Opoku K. ↓, Sealy D. ↑,
66', Owusu P. 🟨,
68', Piette S. 🟨,
68', Wright B. 🟨,
72', Guboglo Y. ↓, Vilsaint J. ↑,
72', Owusu P. ↓, Graham-Roache O. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Wright B. ⚽, Ampomah N. (A),
84', Ampomah N. ↓, Kone A. ↑,
88', Wright B. ↓, Kane K. ↑,
90+1', Craig B. 🟨,
90+5', Jensen N. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Montreal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Montreal could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Forge won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Forge won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forge FC
Canadian Premier League
13.05.25	Forge - Atlético Ottawa	2:2 ✺
Canadian Championship
07.05.25	Forge - HFX Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Canadian Premier League
03.05.25	HFX Wanderers - Forge	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Inter Toronto - Forge	2:2 ✺
19.04.25	Forge - Valour	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWTTT
- CF Montréal
MLS
17.05.25	CF Montréal - Toronto FC	1:6 ✺
14.05.25	CF Montréal - Columbus Crew	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	New York City - CF Montréal	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	CF Montréal - Philadelphia Union	1:2 ✺
Canadian Championship
30.04.25	Toronto FC - CF Montréal	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Canadian Championship
22.05.24	CF Montréal - Forge	1:2
07.05.24	Forge - CF Montréal	1:1
24.05.23	CF Montréal - Forge	2:0
25.05.22	CF Montréal - Forge	3:0
27.10.21	Forge - CF Montréal	0:1 penalties

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