Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 1 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV5


	Libertad Asuncion		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3	3.5
	2.23	3.1	3.45
	2.22	2.99	3.86
	2.25	2.9	3.2
	2.17	3.1	3.64	Watch
	2.18	3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.44)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)	3.55 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
42.8%

Draw
30.8%

Fortaleza
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

30.3%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

30%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Libertad Asuncion - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 12 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 67.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva M. (G) 33. Piris I. 5. Viera D. 3. Barboza A. 17. Espinoza M. 15. Villalba H. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 26. Caballero H. 7. Cardozo O. 10. Melgarejo L.	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 19. Britez E. 4. Titi 6. Bruno Pacheco 17. Ze Welison 8. Caio Alexandre 22. Yago Pikachu 21. Pedro Augusto 29. Guilherme 9. Lucero J.
Substitutes
20. Bareiro A. 14. Cardozo L. 28. Fernandez M. 4. Gimenez N. 30. Gonzalez D. 19. Lezcano R. 18. Mayada C. 8. Merlini B. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 16. Riveros C. 24. Santa C. R.	27. Calebe 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 3. Figueiredo T. 10. Lucas Crispim 88. Lucas Sasha 39. Machuca I. 5. Marcelo Benevenuto 12. Marinho 7. Pochettino T. 18. Romero S. 91. Thiago Galhardo 15. Zanocelo
Coaches
Garnero D.	Vojvoda J. P.

Preview

1st leg.

Libertad in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Fortaleza is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fortaleza could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Libertad will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Libertad to win the game is with odds 2.19.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.07.23	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
24.07.23	Libertad Asuncion - Guaireña	4:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.07.23	Tigre - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
16.07.23	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.07.23	Libertad Asuncion - Tigre	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.23	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	0:3 ✺
22.07.23	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
16.07.23	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
09.07.23	Fortaleza - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
01.07.23	Flamengo - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL

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