Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Fortaleza		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.7
	2.28	2.92	3.45	Watch
	2.33	2.98	3.64
	2.05	3	3.7	Watch
	2.2	2.92	3.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.06)	2.97 ↓ (3.33)	3.69 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
42.9%

Draw
31.6%

Vélez Sársfield
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.7%	59.1%	18.2%

Fortaleza - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 59.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.33) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH +0.5 - Fortaleza (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Leite H. (G) 32. Avila G. 13. Kuscevic B. (C) 14. Mancuso E. 16. Diogo Barbosa 8. Emmanuel Martinez 38. Lucca Prior 88. Lucas Sasha 11. Marinho 18. Deyverson 26. Breno Lopes	1. Marchiori T. (G) 21. Gordon J. 18. Magallan L. 2. Mammana E. 3. Gomez E. 5. Baeza C. 23. Aliendro R. 28. Carrizo M. 8. Galvan T. 11. Pellegrini M. 9. Braian Romero (C)
Substitutes
77. Andrade K. 27. Bareiro A. 33. Britez E. 39. Gustavo Mancha 79. Herrera J. 9. Lucero J. 20. Matheus Rossetto 2. Tinga 12. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 36. Weverson 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison	50. Andrada T. 35. Arias M. 37. Cavanagh T. 15. Godoy D. 14. Lagos A. 39. Machuca I. 12. Montero A. (G) 20. Pizzini F. 6. Quiros A. 19. Roldan L. 40. Silvero T. 17. Veron A.
Coaches
Alves R.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Baeza C. 🟨,
19', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
21', Kuscevic B. ↓, Britez E. ↑,
25', Britez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lucca Prior ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
46', Mammana E. ↓, Quiros A. ↑,
66', Aliendro R. 🟨,
68', Pellegrini M. ↓, Machuca I. ↑,
74', Deyverson ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
74', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
78', Galvan T. ↓, Andrada T. ↑,
83', Marinho ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
84', Matheus Rossetto 🟨,
88', Matheus Rossetto 🟨,
90+1', Braian Romero ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
90+3', Herrera J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fortaleza might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Bouzat A. (Calf Injury) Cavanagh T. (Muscle Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Santos M. (Muscle Injury) Valdes D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Injury)

There are questionable in Vélez: Andrada I. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
03.08.25	Corinthians - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
29.07.25	Grêmio - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Fortaleza - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTLWT
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.08.25	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Vélez Sársfield - Instituto Córdoba	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	Platense - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
14.07.25	Vélez Sársfield - Tigre	2:1 ✺
Argentinian International Super Cup
08.07.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Vélez Sársfield	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTTWW

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