Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Merkur Spiel-Arena (Düsseldorf)

Referee: Prigan F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fortuna Düsseldorf		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.18	Watch
	3.34	3.49	2.25
	3.26	3.49	2.18	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.15
	3.21	3.32	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.68)	3.38 ↑ (3.25)	2.18 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortuna Düsseldorf
29.1%

Draw
27.8%

Schalke 04
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

28.4%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

28%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Düsseldorf has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortuna Düsseldorf's form might have worsened.

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Schalke 04's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Schalke 04, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	3.4%	86.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Fortuna will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Schalke will win (votes: 23 - 85.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 71.8% – 98.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Fortuna (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Schalke (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Schalke 04 will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Schalke (votes: 7 - 87.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Kastenmeier F. (C) 15. Oberdorf T. 44. Egouli E. 2. Daland J. 4. Schmidt K. 8. El Azzouzi A. 46. Suso S. 7. Raimund L. 24. Muslija F. 19. Iyoha E. 13. Itten C.	1. Karius L. (G) 43. Ayhan M. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 35. Wallentowitz M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 46. Popperl P. 33. Becker V. 18. Antwi-Adjei C. 19. Karaman K. (C) 9. Sylla M.
Substitutes
23. Appelkamp S. 9. Celar Z. 30. de Wijs J. 5. Heyer M. 3. Lenz C. 1. Lotka M. (G) 10. Rasmussen C. 22. Schmidt D. 25. Zimmermann M.	14. Bachmann J. 7. Gomis C. 34. Gulasi A. 11. Lasme B. 41. Matriciani H. 32. Podlech L. (G) 27. Porath F. 2. Sanchez F. 16. Zalazar M.
Coaches
Anfang M.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', El-Faouzi S. 🟨,
40', Muslija F. 🟨,
44', Oberdorf T. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Karaman K. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', El Azzouzi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Karaman K. ↓, Lasme B. ↑,
55', Oberdorf T. 🟨,
66', Iyoha E. 🟨,
69', Raimund L. ↓, Rasmussen C. ↑,
73', Wallentowitz M. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
74', Schmidt K. 🟨,
80', Antwi-Adjei C. ↓, Gomis C. ↑,
81', Iyoha E. ↓, Zimmermann M. ↑,
81', El Azzouzi A. ↓, Lenz C. ↑,
81', Popperl P. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Becker V. ⚽, Gomis C. (A),
83', Daland J. 🟨,
85', Becker V. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
86', Egouli E. ↓, Appelkamp S. ↑,
86', Muslija F. ↓, Celar Z. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortuna won 3.

Fortuna has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Schalke's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Schalke might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fortuna: Alexandropoulos S. (Muscle Injury) Hettwer J. (Knee Injury) Lunddal V. (Foot Injury) Rossmann T. (Illness) Schock F. (Tendon Injury) Zimmermann M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Amoussou-Tchibara Z. (Knee Injury) Becker T. (Knee Injury) Donkor A. (Inactive) Gomis C. (Hamstring Injury) Heekeren J. (Inactive) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Remmert P. (Inactive) Younes A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fortuna: Breithaupt T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Schalke: Gantenbein A. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Fortuna won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortuna won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:10. (average 2:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Fortuna Düsseldorf - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.46%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Schalke 04 - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.09%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German 2 Bundesliga
30.11.25	Dynamo Dresden - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Magdeburg	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Holstein Kiel - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Kaiserslautern	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLTL
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Preußen Münster - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Twente - Schalke 04	1:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
08.11.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Karlsruher - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
10.05.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	2:0
14.12.24	Schalke 04 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:1
27.04.24	Schalke 04 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:1
25.11.23	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	5:3
13.02.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	2:1
28.08.21	Schalke 04 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	3:1
German Bundesliga
27.05.20	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	2:1

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