Match Info

J3 League - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.3	4.05	Watch
	1.87	3.45	4.32
	1.77	3.81	4.01	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4
	1.77	3.42	4.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.9)	3.42 ↑ (3.4)	4.11 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
50.8%

Draw
26.8%

Sagamihara
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

26.5%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

27.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Sagamihara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Kagoshima United - Sagamihara Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kagoshima United (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujishima E. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 4. Hirose K. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 14. Yoshio K. 27. Yamaguchi T. 5. Gaudencio 20. Endo M. 13. Kondo Y. 18. Kawamura K.	46. Baumann N. (G) 2. Kato D. 3. Pytlik K. 54. Watahiki K. 97. Fujinuma T. 4. Shimakawa T. 7. Kawano R. 8. Osako R. 6. Tokunaga Y. 14. Takagi A. 15. Maeda T.
Substitutes
8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 23. Kojima R. 92. Nduka C. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 21. Soma J. 10. Take S. 16. Yamauchi K. (G) 36. Yonezawa R.	31. Inose K. (G) 11. Muto Y. 10. Nakayama R. 26. Nishikubo S. 9. Rafael Furtado 24. Sugimoto R. 16. Takano R. 17. Takeuchi T. 5. Tashiro M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Kawamura K. ⚽, Yoshio K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Osako R. ↓, Sugimoto R. ↑,
51', Shimakawa T. 🟨,
61', Maeda T. ↓, Muto Y. ↑,
61', Takagi A. ↓, Rafael Furtado ↑,
61', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
62', Yoshio K. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
63', Fujinuma T. ↓, Takano R. ↑,
68', Kondo Y. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
68', Kawano R. ↓, Nishikubo S. ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Kawamura K. ⚽, Yamaguchi T. (A),
78', Pytlik K. 🟨,
79', Hirose K. ↓, Soma J. ↑,
79', Gaudencio ↓, Fujimura K. ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Rodrigo Angelotti ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 4.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Kagoshima United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kagoshima United is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kagoshima United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
26.07.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kagoshima United	2:3 ✺
21.07.25	Kagoshima United - Osaka	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Tochigi City - Kagoshima United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTWL
- SC Sagamihara
Japan Emperors Cup
06.08.25	Sagamihara - Blaublitz Akita	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
26.07.25	Sagamihara - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Tochigi - Sagamihara	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Sagamihara	0:1 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
12.07.25	Sagamihara - Fukushima United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
01.03.25	Sagamihara - Kagoshima United	0:2
09.09.23	Sagamihara - Kagoshima United	0:3
26.03.23	Kagoshima United - Sagamihara	2:1
20.08.22	Sagamihara - Kagoshima United	0:1
17.07.22	Kagoshima United - Sagamihara	0:1
21.11.20	Kagoshima United - Sagamihara	0:1
02.08.20	Sagamihara - Kagoshima United	2:1

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