Match Info

J3 League - Round 21

Date: 21 July 2025, Monday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kagoshima United		Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.5
	2.58	3.35	2.35	Watch
	2.67	3.25	2.59
	2.78	3.11	2.54	Watch
	2.6	3	2.5
	2.6	3.53	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.33)	3.22 ↑ (3.17)	2.5 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
34.9%

Draw
28.4%

Osaka
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.5%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

29.7%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kagoshima United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	50%	30%

Kagoshima United - Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Kagoshima United will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Kagoshima United (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Osaka (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Osaka (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Osaka (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Kagoshima United (votes: 3 - 30%). Osaka (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujishima E. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 21. Soma J. 7. Chibu K. 3. Sugii H. 73. Tanaka T. 27. Yamaguchi T. 8. Fujimura K. 20. Endo M. 13. Kondo Y. 18. Kawamura K.	1. Yamamoto T. (G) 37. Tsutsumi S. 3. Kawakami R. 23. Akiyama T. 6. Tachino S. 24. Sato R. 27. Sawazaki R. 25. Takei S. 51. Nishimura M. 19. Masuda S. 9. Shimada T.
Substitutes
11. Fukuda M. 5. Gaudencio 23. Kojima R. 29. Okazaki M. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 10. Take S. 16. Yamauchi K. (G) 36. Yonezawa R. 14. Yoshio K.	8. Haga A. 16. Hashimoto R. 7. Kitsui T. 10. Kubo R. 18. Natsukawa Y. 31. Sugawara H. (G) 17. Wada H. 33. Woo S. 4. Yamashita R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Kawamura K. ⚽, Kondo Y. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Tsutsumi S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Sato R. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
64', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
72', Masuda S. ↓, Kubo R. ↑,
72', Takei S. ↓, Haga A. ↑,
75', Kondo Y. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
75', Fujimura K. ↓, Gaudencio ↑,
77', Gaudencio 🟨,
81', Tanaka T. ↓, Yoshio K. ↑,
81', Kawamura K. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
84', Shimada T. ↓, Wada H. ↑,
84', Nishimura M. ↓, Natsukawa Y. ↑,
86', Yamamoto T. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 1, Rodrigo Angelotti ⚽, Sugii H. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kagoshima United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, Kagoshima United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
12.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Kagoshima United	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Tochigi City - Kagoshima United	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Kagoshima United - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWLTT
- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
12.07.25	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Osaka	0:0 ✺
30.06.25	Osaka - Nara Club	1:1 ✺
22.06.25	Osaka - Fukushima United	7:1 ✺
14.06.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
31.05.25	Osaka - Kagoshima United	3:0
05.10.23	Osaka - Kagoshima United	2:3
04.03.23	Kagoshima United - Osaka	2:1

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