Match Info

Date: 24 November 2021, Wednesday


	Fulham		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.75	12
	1.29	5.5	10.5
	1.3	5.6	11
	1.27	5.6	9.6
	1.31	5.61	11.05
	1.27	5.25	11
	1.29	5.85	10.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.36)	5.59 ↑ (4.9)	10.84 ↑ (8.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fulham
74.2%

Draw
17%

Derby County
8.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.9%

19.3%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

79.9%

16.9%

9.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fulham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fulham, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Fulham - Derby County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Fulham has the most likely position - 1 (63.45%), has project points - 96, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a good chance of promoted (90%), has a good chance of win league (63%).

Derby has the most likely position - 24 (53.18%), has project points - 34, has currently - 0, has a good chance of relegated (82%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Fulham in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Derby is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fulham is certain favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Fulham won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 19-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Fulham won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fulham FC
English League Championship
20.11.21	Fulham - Barnsley	4:1 ✺
06.11.21	Peterborough United - Fulham	0:1 ✺
03.11.21	Blackburn Rovers - Fulham	0:7 ✺
30.10.21	Fulham - West Bromwich Albion	3:0 ✺
24.10.21	Nottingham Forest - Fulham	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWWW
- Derby County
English League Championship
21.11.21	Derby County - Bournemouth	3:2 ✺
06.11.21	Millwall - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.11.21	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
30.10.21	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	1:2 ✺
23.10.21	Coventry City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.02.20	Derby County - Fulham	1:1
26.11.19	Fulham - Derby County	3:0
14.05.18	Fulham - Derby County	2:0
11.05.18	Derby County - Fulham	1:0
03.03.18	Derby County - Fulham	1:2
18.11.17	Fulham - Derby County	1:1
04.04.17	Derby County - Fulham	4:2

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