Match Info

Championship - Round 35

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Derby County		Blackburn Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.3
	2.12	3.35	3.54	Watch
	2.2	3.37	3.65
	2.07	3.37	3.67	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.5
	2.12	3.44	3.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.19)	3.33 ↓ (3.41)	3.54 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
44.8%

Draw
28.4%

Blackburn Rovers
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

27.7%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.6%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Blackburn Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blackburn Rovers than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	27.8%	5.6%

Derby County - Blackburn Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Blackburn will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Derby County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 2. Murkin D. 42. Clark B. 27. Travis L. (C) 25. Brereton Diaz B. 19. Szmodics S. 7. Agyemang P. 9. Morris C.	22. Toth B. (G) 17. Carter H. 15. McLoughlin S. (C) 20. Cashin E. 2. Alebiosu R. 24. Baradji M. 28. Forshaw A. 4. Ribeiro Y. 25. Morishita R. 23. Ohashi Y. 11. Gudjohnsen A.
Substitutes
54. Allen C. 34. Banel J. 10. Brewster R. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 44. Gordon I. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 18. Ozoh D.	21. Afolayan O. 38. Atcheson T. 14. De Neve D. 5. Gardner-Hickman T. 29. Jorgensen M. 35. Michalski N. (G) 31. Montgomery K. 26. O'Riordan C. 3. Pickering H.
Coaches
Eustace J.	O'Neill Mi.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Szmodics S. 🟨,
36', Forshaw A. 🟨,
45', Travis L. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Carter H. ⚽, Ribeiro Y. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Clark B. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽, Murkin D. (A),
56', Forshaw A. ↓, Montgomery K. ↑,
58', Cashin E. 🟨,
60', Ribeiro Y. 🟨,
62', Morris C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
69', Ribeiro Y. ↓, Pickering H. ↑,
69', Gudjohnsen A. ↓, Jorgensen M. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Clarke M. ⚽,
79', Carter H. 🟨,
80', Carter H. ↓, Gardner-Hickman T. ↑,
80', Baradji M. ↓, De Neve D. ↑,
80', Szmodics S. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Brewster R. ⚽, Murkin D. (A),
87', Murkin D. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,
87', Clarke M. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Derby may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Derby could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Langas S. (Hamstring Injury) Widell Zetterstrom J. (Illness)

There will not play in Blackburn: Cantwell T. (Injury) Kargbo A. (Leg Injury) Litherland M. (Injury) Miller L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pears A. (Injury) Tavares S. (Knee Injury) Wharton S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Banel J. (Inactive) Salvesen L. (Inactive) Thompson L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Blackburn: Hedges R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.2:1.1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Blackburn: 1.04% Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14:13	1	12
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Blackburn Rovers - the odds 3.23 are the expected chance of winning is 29.22%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
24.02.26	Hull City - Derby County	4:2 ✺
21.02.26	Watford - Derby County	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Derby County - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Bristol City - Derby County	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLWLW
- Blackburn Rovers
English League Championship
24.02.26	Blackburn Rovers - Bristol City	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Blackburn Rovers - Preston North End	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Queens Park Rangers - Blackburn Rovers	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	Norwich City - Blackburn Rovers	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Blackburn Rovers - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
08.11.25	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	1:2
08.03.25	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	2:1
09.08.24	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	4:2
15.03.22	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	3:1
30.10.21	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	1:2
16.04.21	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	2:1
26.09.20	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	0:4

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