Match Info

Date: 21 November 2021, Sunday


	Derby County		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	5	3.6	1.72	Watch
	5.25	3.4	1.75
	4.9	3.55	1.8	Watch
	4.9	3.4	1.75
	5.29	3.63	1.77
	4.8	3.3	1.78	Watch
	5	3.62	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↑ (4.66)	3.5 ↑ (3.49)	1.76 ↓ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
18.9%

Draw
27.2%

Bournemouth
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

27%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.3%

21.7%

65.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bournemouth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Derby County - Bournemouth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Derby has the most likely position - 24 (64.62%), has project points - 30, has currently - -3, has a good chance of relegated (89%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bournemouth has the most likely position - 2 (36.69%), has project points - 92, has currently - 40, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (25%), has a good chance of promoted (77%), has a chance of win league (35%).

Derby is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Bournemouth is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Bournemouth is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Derby won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
06.11.21	Millwall - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.11.21	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
30.10.21	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	1:2 ✺
23.10.21	Coventry City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
19.10.21	Derby County - Luton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLLTT
- AFC Bournemouth
English League Championship
06.11.21	Bournemouth - Swansea City	4:0 ✺
03.11.21	Bournemouth - Preston North End	1:2 ✺
30.10.21	Reading - Bournemouth	0:2 ✺
23.10.21	Bournemouth - Huddersfield Town	3:0 ✺
19.10.21	Stoke City - Bournemouth	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
19.01.21	Derby County - Bournemouth	1:0
31.10.20	Bournemouth - Derby County	1:1
10.02.15	Bournemouth - Derby County	2:2
30.09.14	Derby County - Bournemouth	2:0
22.02.14	Derby County - Bournemouth	1:0
23.11.13	Bournemouth - Derby County	0:1

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