Match Info

HONDURAS: Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 12 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Carlos Miranda (Comayagua)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Génesis PN		Real Sociedad Tocoa

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.3	3.65
	1.9	3.34	4.05
	1.92	3.43	3.95	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.8
	1.8	3.44	3.95	Watch
	1.92	3.3	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.86)	3.34 ↓ (3.43)	3.84 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Génesis PN
48.5%

Draw
27.5%

Real Sociedad Tocoa
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

26.6%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

25.5%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Génesis PN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Real Sociedad Tocoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad Tocoa than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Argueta G. (G)
25. Acosta B.
9. Bodden A.
12. Casildo L.
24. Davila S.
5. Garcia J.
10. Martinez M.
38. Morales Abarca M. D.
6. Morazan O.
21. Moreira R.
17. Oliva H.
Substitutes
7. Canales M.
4. Colon H.
26. Crisanto F.
11. Diamond R.
27. Fernandez C.
14. Fiallos J.
30. Flores E. (G)
8. Melendez D.
56. Rodriguez R.
19. Salinas M.
3. Santos L.
23. Villafranca J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Reyes D. 🟨,
25', Morazan O. 🟨,
37', Flores M. 🟨,
43', Acosta B. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Martinez G. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Morazan O. ↓, Canales M. ↑,
46', Moreira R. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
46', Acosta B. ↓, Fiallos J. ↑,
46', Reyes D. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
57', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
67', Martinez G. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
67', Oliva H. ↓, Diamond R. ↑,
67', Monico D. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
72', 🟨,
72', Flores M. 🟨,
76', Martinez M. ↓, Villafranca J. ↑,
81', Agurcia E. ↓, Gotay P. ↑,
84', Felix B. ↓, Enamorado N. ↑,
88', Martinez A. N. 🟨,
90+3', Diamond R. 🟨,
90+3', Roa A. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Diamond R. ⚽,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Génesis won 4.

Recent matches Génesis is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Real Sociedad Tocoa is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Génesis is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Génesis won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:8 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Génesis won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:5 (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Génesis Policía Nacional
Honduras Liga Nacional
08.02.25	Olancho - Génesis PN	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Génesis PN - Motagua	1:1 ✺
30.01.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Génesis PN	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	4:0 ✺
18.01.25	Real España - Génesis PN	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TTLWT
- Real Sociedad Tocoa
Honduras Liga Nacional
05.02.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:4 ✺
02.02.25	CD Marathón - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
29.01.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Olancho	2:2 ✺
26.01.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Real España	0:2 ✺
19.01.25	Motagua - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
02.11.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	2:4
24.08.24	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1
08.04.24	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:0
11.02.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	1:2
02.12.23	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:2
29.11.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	0:0
08.10.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	0:1

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