Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 25

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Güemes		Deportivo Madryn

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.88	2.9	Watch
	2.5	2.85	2.87
	2.58	2.78	2.92	Watch
	2.74	2.86	2.99
	1.54	3.75	6.58	Watch
	2.5	2.88	2.9
	2.58	2.83	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.7)	2.98 ↑ (2.9)	3.43 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
39.5%

Draw
32.4%

Deportivo Madryn
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

31.5%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

31.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Güemes's performance.

Deportivo Madryn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Madryn might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Güemes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Madryn could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	18.2%	54.5%

Güemes - Deportivo Madryn Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Güemes will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Deportivo Madryn will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Madryn: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Güemes (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Deportivo Madryn (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Acosta M. (G) 6. Gonzalez F. 5. Griffa E. 8. Juarez N. 4. Juarez W. 3. Kruger J. 11. Lesman G. 2. Machuca B. 9. Palacios P. 7. Sala S. G. 10. Veliz D.	1. Bonnin Y. (C) 7. Crego D. 3. Martinez D. 2. Minissale P. 8. Perez B. 6. Postel S. 5. Recalde F. 11. Rivero G. 9. Silba L. 10. Solis N. 4. Sosa A.
Substitutes
20. Albertengo M. 19. Alvarez M. 14. Arevalos N. 13. Bettini M. 15. Chiozza L. 16. Federico T. 18. Gerez M. 17. Oyola A. I. 12. Pezzini N. (G)	20. Ayala E. 15. Cascini B. 12. Hass J. (G) 18. Juncos B. 19. Mana N. 13. Mansilla M. 17. Montagna E. 16. Nicolas T. J. 14. Pruzzo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Machuca B. ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Solis N. ⚽,
28', 1 - 2, Crego D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Kruger J. ↓, Bettini M. ↑,
55', Lesman G. ↓, Alvarez M. ↑,
58', 1 - 3, Silba L. ⚽,
60', Juarez N. ↓, Gerez M. ↑,
60', Veliz D. ↓, Oyola A. I. ↑,
67', Solis N. ↓, Montagna E. ↑,
67', Rivero G. ↓, Mana N. ↑,
77', Silba L. ↓, Ayala E. ↑,
77', Perez B. ↓, Cascini B. ↑,
81', Martinez D. ↓, Mansilla M. ↑,
82', Juarez W. 🟨,
89', Sala S. G. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Güemes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.07.25	Deportivo Maipú - Güemes	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:1 ✺
12.07.25	Tristán Suárez - Güemes	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Güemes - San Martín de Tucumán	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Güemes - Los Andes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TTTWW
- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	3:1 ✺
26.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Club Almagro	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	San Miguel - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.03.25	Deportivo Madryn - Güemes	1:0
29.05.22	Deportivo Madryn - Güemes	0:1

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