Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Gainsborough Trinity		Leek Town

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	3.7
	1.65	3.65	4.35
	1.89	3.62	3.56
	1.67	4.16	4.32	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.2
	1.63	3.75	4.53
	1.96	3.4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.65)	3.62 ↓ (4.13)	4.02 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainsborough Trinity
52.1%

Draw
25.2%

Leek Town
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

22.5%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

21.8%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainsborough Trinity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Leek Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gainsborough Trinity, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Gainsborough Trinity - Leek Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Tuntulwana S. ⚽,
81', 2 - 0, Parks C. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 17).

Gainsborough is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Leek has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gainsborough may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gainsborough is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Gainsborough won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20:14	6	16
17	Leek	11	2	4	5	22:23	-1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
21.02.26	United of Manchester - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1 ✺
17.02.26	Whitby Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Workington	3:3 ✺
10.02.26	Bamber Bridge - Gainsborough Trinity	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWTWL
- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
21.02.26	Leek Town - Hebburn Town	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Lancaster City - Leek Town	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Ilkeston - Leek Town	1:3 ✺
24.01.26	Hednesford Town - Leek Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
07.02.26	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0
26.04.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Leek Town	2:1
24.08.24	Leek Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2

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