Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Gateshead International Stadium (Gateshead)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	DAZN National League


	Gateshead		Worthing

	1	X	2
	7	5.25	1.3
	5.00	4.33	1.46
	5.9	4.7	1.4	Watch
	6.43	5.09	1.44
	6.6	5.2	1.37	Watch
	6	4.95	1.4
	6.75	5.4	1.4
	6	4.8	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.21 ↑ (4.05)	4.97 ↑ (3.96)	1.4 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gateshead
14.9%

Draw
18.7%

Worthing
66.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

23.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

22.9%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gateshead has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gateshead's form might have worsened.

Worthing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Worthing's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gateshead, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Worthing than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Worthing, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Gateshead - Worthing Predictions

Users Predictions: Worthing will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jameson P. (G) 3. Ferguson D. 2. Lavery T. 5. Lankshear A. (C) 8. Bowen S. 4. Home J. 20. Fenton J. 21. Spellman M. 25. McCalmont A. 7. Hiwula J. 29. Issaka F.	13. Seymour T. (G) 5. Cook J. 6. Moore J. 21. Sutton E. 2. Colbran J. (C) 27. Young J. 4. Wadham J. 15. Aguiar R. 3. Adjetey-Brew C. 7. Coleman De-Graft R. 24. Kendall C.
Substitutes
23. Chadwick B. 17. Coyle R. 27. Eguaibor D. 28. Holgate H. 38. Lewis-Burgess K. 1. Phillips N. (G) 19. Supyk L.	25. Boddy H. 32. De La Cruz G. (G) 11. Johnson-Fisher D. 16. Packham S. 12. Ransom H. 17. Smith B. 28. Waller C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Wadham J. ⚽, Young J. (A),
27', McCalmont A. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Hiwula J. ⚽, Issaka F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Lavery T. 🟨,
56', Sutton E. ↓, Waller C. ↑,
56', Colbran J. ↓, Johnson-Fisher D. ↑,
58', Young J. ↓, Johnson-Fisher D. ↑,
61', Bowen S. ↓, Supyk L. ↑,
67', Fenton J. 🟨,
70', Issaka F. ↓, Eguaibor D. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Lankshear A. (Own goal),
79', Spellman M. 🟨,
85', Hiwula J. ↓, Chadwick B. ↑,
85', McCalmont A. ↓, Lewis-Burgess K. ↑,
85', Aguiar R. ↓, Packham S. ↑,
85', Kendall C. ↓, Ransom H. ↑,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 24th in the Relegation and 8th).

Gateshead has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Worthing shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, Worthing enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Worthing in today's match, at odds of 1.35.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Outrights of English National League for now

Gateshead: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22:18	4	21
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7:27	-20	4

Last Results with these Odds

Worthing - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.65%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gateshead
English National League North
29.09.26	Gateshead - Altrincham	0:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Wealdstone - Gateshead	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Gateshead - Southend United	1:6 ✺
English National League North
16.09.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Gateshead	1:0 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Forest Green Rovers - Gateshead	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Worthing FC
English National League North
29.09.26	Yeovil Town - Worthing	1:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Worthing - Halifax Town	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Hartlepool United - Worthing	1:3 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Worthing - Hornchurch	1:0 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Worthing - Barrow	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TWWWT

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