Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Italy	Sky Sport Arena
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Genk		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2.25
	3.1	3.6	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.5	2.23
	3.22	3.63	2.23
	3.14	3.65	2.15
	3.1	3.65	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.65)	3.61 ↑ (3.41)	2.22 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk
30.7%

Draw
26.4%

Fiorentina
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

27.4%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

27.8%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fiorentina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	17.6%	58.8%

Genk - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 23. Munoz D. 3. Sadick M. 2. McKenzie M. 5. Arteaga G. 34. El Khannouss B. 25. Galarza M. A. 8. Heynen B. (C) 24. Oyen L. 9. Zeqiri A. 7. Fadera A.	53. Christensen O. (G) 33. Kayode M. 4. Milenkovic N. 16. Ranieri L. 3. Biraghi C. (C) 6. Arthur Melo 38. Mandragora R. 32. Duncan A. 10. Gonzalez N. 9. Beltran L. 7. Sottil R.
Substitutes
19. Ait El Hadj A. 99. Arokodare T. 90. Bonsu Baah C. 30. Chambaere V. (G) 46. Cuesta C. 77. El Ouahdi Z. 17. Hrosovsky P. 18. Kayembe J. 72. Ndenge Kongolo J. 4. Ouattara A. 14. Sor Y. 1. Van Crombrugge H. (G)	73. Amatucci L. 72. Barak A. 77. Brekalo J. 37. Comuzzo P. 2. Dodo 19. Infantino G. 99. Kouame C. 8. Lopez M. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 18. Nzola M. 65. Parisi F. 1. Terracciano P. (G)
Coaches
Vrancken W.	Italiano V.

Preview

Genk is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Fiorentina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fiorentina will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Bonaventura G. (Ribs Injury) Mina Y. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Genk: Chambaere V. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Castrovilli G. (Knee Injury) Ikone J. (Hip Injury) Pierozzi N. (Abdominal strain)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
16.09.23	Saint-Gilloise - Genk	0:2 ✺
03.09.23	Genk - Anderlecht	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Adana Demirspor - Genk	1:1 penalties ✺
24.08.23	Genk - Adana Demirspor	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
20.08.23	Genk - Charleroi	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWWT
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
17.09.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	3:2 ✺
03.09.23	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Fiorentina - Rapid Wien	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
27.08.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.08.23	Rapid Wien - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWTL

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