Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 15

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Van Driessche B. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	13:30	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
Japan	21:30	DAZN Japan


	Genk		KV Mechelen

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	6	Watch
	1.43	4.85	6.3	Watch
	1.57	4.41	5.19
	1.5	4.63	6.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.88)	4.56 ↑ (3.65)	6.06 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk
63.7%

Draw
20.7%

KV Mechelen
15.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.1%

25.8%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

25.2%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Genk's performance.

KV Mechelen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KV Mechelen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genk than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Genk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KV Mechelen than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that KV Mechelen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	9.5%	33.3%

Genk - KV Mechelen Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Mechelen will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Mechelen (4.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Van Crombrugge H. (G) 44. Kongolo J. 3. Sadick M. 6. Smets M. 19. Medina Y. 17. Hrosovsky P. 8. Heynen B. (C) 7. Steuckers J. 38. Heymans D. 14. Sor Y. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu	13. Miras N. (G) 8. Konate M. 33. St. Jago T. 18. Struyf I. 7. Koudou T. 6. Hammar F. (C) 17. Servais M. 3. Marsa J. 9. van Brederode M. 20. Lauberbach L. 14. Raman B.
Substitutes
32. Adedeji-Sternberg N. 21. Bangoura I. 28. Brughmans L. (G) 20. Karetsas K. 26. Lawal T. (G) 29. Mirisola R. 34. Palacios A. 24. Sattlberger N. 30. Yokoyama A.	38. Antonio B. 11. Bafdili B. 12. Bande H. 39. Decoene M. 4. Diouf G. 22. Golic L. 19. Mrabti K. 29. Salifou D. 15. Van Ingelgom T. (G)
Coaches
Fink T.	Vanderbiest F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', Konate M. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Marsa J. ⚽, Raman B. (A),
37', Hammar F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Miras N. 🟨,
65', Raman B. ↓, Salifou D. ↑,
72', Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,
72', Kongolo J. ↓, Karetsas K. ↑,
72', Medina Y. ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
79', Struyf I. ↓, Diouf G. ↑,
81', Hrosovsky P. ↓, Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↑,
81', Sor Y. ↓, Erabi J. ↑,
89', Lauberbach L. 🟨,
90+2', Diouf G. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genk won 3.

Genk is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mechelen has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Genk is the team to beat.

There will not play in Genk: El Ouahdi Z. (Shoulder Injury) Ito J. (Knock) Lawal T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mechelen: De Wolf O. (Knee Injury) Kiki (Surgery) Konate M. (Broken cheekbone) Mrabti K. (Muscle Injury) Ozdemir H. (Collarbone injury)

There are questionable in Genk: Nkuba K. (Heel Injury)

We predict that Genk will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Genk won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 39:20. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Genk won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:7. (average 2.8:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Genk - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 50.07%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.11.25	Gent - Genk	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Braga - Genk	3:4 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
02.11.25	Westerlo - Genk	0:1 ✺
Belgian Cup
29.10.25	Genk - RWDM Brussels	3:0 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.10.25	Genk - RAAL La Louvière	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TWWWT
- KV Mechelen
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
09.11.25	KV Mechelen - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Anderlecht - KV Mechelen	3:1 ✺
Belgian Cup
28.10.25	KV Mechelen - Lierse	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
25.10.25	KV Mechelen - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
18.01.25	KV Mechelen - Genk	1:2
28.09.24	Genk - KV Mechelen	2:1
11.02.24	KV Mechelen - Genk	1:1
22.10.23	Genk - KV Mechelen	4:0
17.02.23	KV Mechelen - Genk	2:2
28.10.22	Genk - KV Mechelen	3:1
21.05.22	KV Mechelen - Genk	0:0

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