Match Info

HNL - Round 32

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Gradski stadion Velika Gorica (Velika Gorica)

Referee: Kolaric P. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1


	Gorica		Istra 1961

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	3.9
	1.95	3.4	3.8
	1.9	3.35	3.9
	1.93	3.49	4.2
	1.95	3.46	3.83	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.8
	1.94	3.39	4.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.04)	3.36 ↑ (3.28)	3.94 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gorica
48.5%

Draw
27.8%

Istra 1961
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

28.1%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

27.6%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gorica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Gorica - Istra 1961 Predictions

Users Predictions: Gorica will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Matijas D. (G) 45. Peric S. 4. Filipovic J. 5. Les M. 22. Trontelj Z. 8. Pozo I. 36. Kavelj A. 25. Bogojevic B. 10. Prsir J. (C) 24. Pavicic D. 50. Erceg A.	1. Kolic F. (G) 97. Kadusic A. 24. Taraba F. 38. Kumar R. 26. Heister M. 23. Stulac L. 8. Mauric A. 17. Frederiksen E. 10. Loncar S. 7. Rozic V. 9. Prevljak S. (C)
Substitutes
7. Bakic O. 32. Durakovic E. 64. Epailly T. 18. Fiolic I. 99. Gashi M. 14. Kucis S. 21. Moustapha H. I. 1. Sahinovic M. (G) 11. Sule W. 20. Vrzic L. 30. Zarkov D. (G)	77. Agada C. 20. Ahmeti D. 25. Albarracin G. 18. Ayuma I. 32. Celija D. 44. Hrvatin R. 16. Miettinen S. 3. Nasraoui M. 29. Obando A. 40. Paus-Kunst J. (G) 15. Sama E. 13. Sepic N.
Coaches
Carevic M.	Rezic K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Prsir J. ⚽, Bogojevic B. (A),
45+1', Rozic V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mauric A. ↓, Ahmeti D. ↑,
50', Erceg A. 🟨,
57', Kadusic A. 🟨,
67', Prsir J. ↓, Epailly T. ↑,
73', Bogojevic B. ↓, Bakic O. ↑,
73', Erceg A. ↓, Sule W. ↑,
78', Heister M. ↓, Sepic N. ↑,
78', Rozic V. ↓, Agada C. ↑,
82', Kavelj A. ↓, Durakovic E. ↑,
85', Frederiksen E. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
87', Kumar R. 🟨,
89', Peric S. 🟨,
90', Prevljak S. 🟨,
90', Kadusic A. ↓, Hrvatin R. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Recently, Istra 1961 has had a series of home games.

Gorica is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gorica: Cabraja M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Istra 1961: Ayuma I. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gorica won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Istra 1961	9	3	3	3	17:14	3	12
10	Gorica	9	1	2	6	6:14	-8	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Gorica
Croatian HNL
22.04.26	Vukovar 91 - Gorica	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Gorica - Lokomotiva Zagreb	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Hajduk Split - Gorica	1:0 ✺
Croatian Cup
08.04.26	Gorica - Dinamo Zagreb	3:6 ✺
Croatian HNL
03.04.26	Varaždin - Gorica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLLT
- Istra 1961
Croatian HNL
22.04.26	Istra 1961 - Dinamo Zagreb	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Istra 1961 - Vukovar 91	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Istra 1961	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Istra 1961 - Hajduk Split	1:3 ✺
20.03.26	Istra 1961 - Varaždin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
21.02.26	Istra 1961 - Gorica	0:2
23.11.25	Gorica - Istra 1961	1:0
29.08.25	Istra 1961 - Gorica	1:0
12.04.25	Gorica - Istra 1961	3:2
31.01.25	Istra 1961 - Gorica	0:0
27.10.24	Gorica - Istra 1961	1:0
10.08.24	Istra 1961 - Gorica	2:1

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