Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Grêmio		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.58	3.9	5.5
	1.58	3.7	5.4	Watch
	1.63	3.8	5.92
	1.63	3.48	5.92	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5	Watch
	1.63	3.7	5.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.31)	3.74 ↓ (5.33)	5.55 ↓ (8.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
58.2%

Draw
25%

Alianza Lima
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.5%

17.6%

10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

16.5%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Grêmio - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiago Volpi (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 47. Alysson 65. Freitas dos Santos R. 22. Braithwaite M. 20. Villasanti M. 99. Olivera C.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 5. Zambrano C. (C) 6. Garces R. 8. Castillo E. 4. Noriega E. 18. Pena S. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K.
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 9. Amuzu F. 77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 8. Edenilson 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 34. Igor Serrote 21. Jemerson 36. Luan Candido 7. Pavon C. 35. Ronald	17. Archimbaud J. 9. Barcos H. 28. Burlamaqui A. 1. Campos A. (G) 51. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 3. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 16. Succar M.
Coaches
Mano Menezes	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Garces R. 🟨,
10', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
15', Mano Menezes 🟨,
36', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
42', Zambrano C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Olivera C. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Marlon (A),
57', Villasanti M. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
59', Andre Henrique 🟨,
68', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
69', Pena S. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
74', Gustavo Martins ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
82', Quevedo K. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
82', Alysson ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
90+1', Zambrano C. 🟨,
90+2', Castillo E. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,
90+4', Freitas dos Santos R. 🟨,
90+5', Viscarra G. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Barcos H. ⚽, Gaibor F. (A),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.

Grêmio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alianza Lima is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Grêmio won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.07.25	Alianza Lima - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Recopa Gaucho
08.07.25	Grêmio - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLWT
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
19.07.25	Cusco - Alianza Lima	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.07.25	Alianza Lima - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
12.07.25	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Alianza Lima - Escuela Municipal Binacional	5:1 ✺
28.06.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.07.25	Alianza Lima - Grêmio	2:0

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