Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Peru	Liga 1 Max
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 7
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 3
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.81	Watch
	4.00	3.50	1.90
	3.95	3.4	1.88	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.93
	3.77	3.67	1.96	Watch
	4.05	3.65	1.91
	4.05	3.65	1.92	Watch
	3.9	3.5	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.32)	3.58 ↑ (3.35)	1.9 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
23.7%

Draw
26.4%

Palmeiras
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

27.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

27.5%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Grêmio - Palmeiras Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 6. Gustavo Martins 2. Fabian Balbuena 82. Wallace 18. Joao Pedro 20. Villasanti M. (C) 8. Noriega E. 54. Pedro Gabriel 7. Pavon C. 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 2. Barboza A. 22. Piquerez J. 30. Lucas Evangelista 17. Marlon Freitas 11. Arias J. 8. Andreas Pereira 42. Lopez J. 9. Vitor Roque
Substitutes
50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 77. Cabral J. 15. Danilo Barbosa 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 10. Krovinovic F. 43. Luis Eduardo 14. Marcos Rocha 30. Matheus Nascimento 11. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo	56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 39. Heittor Vinicius 12. Khellven 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 19. Sosa R.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Giay A. 🟨,
41', Noriega E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Noriega E. ↓, Danilo Barbosa ↑,
64', Joao Pedro 🟨,
68', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
68', Pavon C. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
69', Amuzu F. ↓, Cabral J. ↑,
69', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
72', Arias J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
72', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
73', Barboza A. 🟨,
74', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
77', Piquerez J. 🟨,
79', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
79', Andreas Pereira ↓, Mauricio ↑,
79', Piquerez J. ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
81', Joao Pedro ↓, Marcos Rocha ↑,
89', Sosa R. 🟨,
89', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 16th and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.

Grêmio has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Palmeiras is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Palmeiras may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Palmeiras for this game.

Confirmed absences for Grêmio: Amuzu F. (Inactive) Dodi (Knee Injury) Marlon (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Palmeiras: Jefte (Knee Injury) Murilo (Yellow Cards) Paulinho (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Grêmio has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:33 (averaging 0.9:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Grêmio against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:16 goals (averaging 1:1.6 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 35.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 3.32 are the expected chance of winning is 27.98%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Palmeiras - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.33%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
16.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
03.09.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Grêmio - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLWW
- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	LDU Quito - Palmeiras	3:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Palmeiras - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Santos - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.04.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio	2:1
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2
26.07.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0
08.11.24	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0
04.07.24	Grêmio - Palmeiras	2:2
21.09.23	Grêmio - Palmeiras	1:0
10.05.23	Palmeiras - Grêmio	4:1

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