Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 17

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
New-zealand	ESPN
Portugal	Canal 11
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Grêmio		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.7
	2.18	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.34	3.6
	2.26	3.32	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.32	3.27	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.05)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	3.44 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
43.2%

Draw
29.2%

Santos
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

28.9%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

29.6%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Grêmio - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Santos will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (C) 7. Pavon C. 43. Luis Eduardo 44. Viery 38. Caio Paulista 33. Perez L. 19. Noriega E. 99. Enamorado J. 22. Braithwaite M. 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 4. Lucas Verissimo (C) 31. Escobar G. 15. Willian Arao 48. Gustavo Henrique 49. Gabriel Bontempo 30. Miguelito 11. Rony 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
8. Arthur Melo 17. Dodi 14. Marcos Rocha 11. Monsalve M. 32. Ramon V. 65. Riquelme 21. Tete 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 39. Tiago 20. Villasanti M. 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann	19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 27. Fernandes D. 42. Joao Alencar 26. Joao Ananias 14. Luan Peres 21. Moises 28. Oliva C. 81. Pierri S. 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr. 2. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Castro L.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
29', Pavon C. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Miguelito (A),
40', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),
45', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Noriega E. ↓, Arthur Melo ↑,
55', 1 - 2, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Gabriel Bontempo (A),
56', Enamorado J. ↓, Tete ↑,
59', 2 - 2, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
63', 3 - 2, Tete ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
82', Willian Arao ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
82', Rony ↓, Robinho Jr. ↑,
83', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Wagner Leonardo ↑,
84', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
87', Miguelito ↓, Pierri S. ↑,
88', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Moises ↑,
90+1', Pavon C. ↓, Marcos Rocha ↑,
90+2', Igor Vinicius ↓, Fernandes D. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 15 and 16)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.

Grêmio is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Santos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Grêmio will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Yellow Cards) Arthur Melo (Thigh Injury) Fabian Balbuena (Thigh Injury) Gabriel Mec (Yellow Cards) Marlon (Broken ankle) Nardoni J. (Hamstring Injury) Pedro Gabriel (Yellow Cards) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Barreal A. (Red Card) Joao Schmidt (Hamstring Injury) Thaciano (Hamstring Injury) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Barreal A. (Injury) Gabriel Menino (Hamstring Injury) Luan Peres (Injury) Neymar (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:12. (average 1.9:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Grêmio - Palestino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Confiança - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Riestra - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTWLW
- Santos FC
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Santos - San Lorenzo	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Santos - Grêmio	1:1
04.05.25	Grêmio - Santos	1:0
20.08.23	Santos - Grêmio	2:1
16.04.23	Grêmio - Santos	1:0
10.10.21	Santos - Grêmio	1:0
24.06.21	Grêmio - Santos	2:2
03.02.21	Grêmio - Santos	3:3

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