Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
World	Onefootball


	Deportivo Recoleta		Santos

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.1	1.48	Watch
	4.75	3.6	1.71
	6.4	3.95	1.49	Watch
	7.35	4.18	1.44
	6.75	4.03	1.52	Watch
	7	3.8	1.44
	7.5	4.1	1.48	Watch
	4.1	3.4	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.42 ↑ (4.1)	3.9 ↑ (3.4)	1.56 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Recoleta
14.8%

Draw
24.3%

Santos
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

27.5%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

26.9%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Recoleta's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Recoleta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Deportivo Recoleta - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Recoleta will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Santos will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Recoleta (5.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Recoleta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ferreira N. (G) 2. Echeguren Zarza F. A. 5. Marotta N. 3. Cardozo L. (C) 25. Mosquera D. 10. Noguera J. 7. Dominguez R. 6. Espinola J. 17. Baez W. 18. Rios P. 29. Wlk A.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 4. Lucas Verissimo 26. Joao Ananias 31. Escobar G. 28. Oliva C. 5. Joao Schmidt 49. Gabriel Bontempo 10. Neymar (C) 32. Rollheiser B. 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
20. Canete M. 36. Ferreira B. 38. Franco A. 8. Galeano F. 19. Lopez H. 1. Marsengo A. (G) 15. Medina B. 32. Monzon L. 11. Parzajuk K. 4. Pereira M. 31. Schupp M. 24. Vidal T.	22. Barreal A. 1. Diogenes (G) 98. Frias A. 14. Luan Peres 47. Mateus Xavier 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 7. Robinho Jr. 11. Rony 16. Thaciano 15. Willian Arao 6. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Gonzalez J.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Neymar ⚽, Rollheiser B. (A),
43', González J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rios P. ↓, Parzajuk K. ↑,
46', Espinola J. ↓, Franco A. ↑,
48', Dominguez R. 🟨,
59', Baez W. 🟨,
71', Baez W. ↓, Ferreira B. ↑,
75', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Thaciano ↑,
75', Escobar G. ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
80', Ferreira B. 🟨,
80', Echeguren Zarza F. A. ↓, Medina B. ↑,
81', Cardozo L. 🟨,
86', Dominguez R. ↓, Galeano F. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Galeano F. ⚽,
89', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
89', Oliva C. ↓, Rony ↑,
90+1', Rony 🟨,
90+2', Thaciano ↓, Mateus Xavier ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Santos is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Recoleta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Recoleta
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Deportivo Cuenca	0:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Deportivo Recoleta - 2 de Mayo	5:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Santos - Deportivo Recoleta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 WTLWT
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Santos - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Santos - Deportivo Recoleta	1:1

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